ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Depression Guillermo Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072021 200 AM PDT Tue Jul 20 2021 Aside from an isolated shower or two, the cyclone has been essentially devoid of deep convection for the past 12-15 hours. A recent scatterometer overpass measured winds of 27 kt over the northern portion of the circulation, and assuming some undersampling by that instrument the advisory intensity remains 30 kt. Guillermo has been moving just slightly south of due west or around 260/15 kt. A mid-level ridge to the north and northwest of the system should result in a westward to west-southwestward track during the next couple of days. The official forecast is just a bit south of the previous track and follows the latest multi-model consensus, TVCE, solution. The cyclone is expected to traverse SSTs of 24-25 deg C during the next couple of days, and continue to ingest relatively dry and stable air as evidenced by the dense stratocumulus field ahead of the system. These conditions should make it unlikely for Guillermo to regenerate. Unless there is a significant redevelopment of deep convection near the center soon, Guillermo will be declared a remnant low pressure system later today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0900Z 19.0N 123.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 20/1800Z 18.6N 125.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 21/0600Z 18.1N 128.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 21/1800Z 17.5N 131.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 22/0600Z 16.9N 133.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 22/1800Z 16.3N 136.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 31-Dec-2021 12:09:53 UTC