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Tropical Storm Felicia Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062021
800 PM PDT Wed Jul 14 2021
 
Felicia has maintained a healthy satellite appearance today, with a 
symmetric central dense overcast and continued bursts of deep 
convection near and over its center. The upper-level outflow on the 
eastern side of the circulation appears somewhat limited, perhaps 
suggestive of some easterly wind shear. A mid-level eye was noted 
in earlier microwave data, but unfortunately no recent passes have 
sampled Felicia to help assess how the structure has changed. A 
blend of the subjective Dvorak classifications from TAFB 
(T3.5/55 kt) and SAB (T4.0/65 kt) supports an initial intensity of 
60 kt for this advisory, which is slightly higher than the objective 
ADT and SATCON estimates of around 50-55 kt. 
 
Felicia is moving west-northwestward, or 285/13 kt, but the 
cyclone is forecast to turn westward and then west-southwestward 
during the next couple of days in response to a reorientation of the 
ridge axis to the north of Felicia. Thereafter, a general westward 
motion is likely through the rest of the forecast period as a low- 
to mid-level ridge remains positioned to the north of Felicia. The 
track guidance is tightly clustered, and the official NHC track 
forecast is essentially an update of the previous one with a slight 
southward adjustment that follows the consensus aids TVCE and HCCA. 
 
Felicia is expected to continue strengthening during the next couple 
of days over warm SSTs in a low vertical wind shear environment. The 
only apparent hindrance is some dry mid-level air in the surrounding 
environment, which could disrupt Felicia's convective organization 
if it is entrained into the inner core of the small cyclone. The 
SHIPS guidance indicates that Felicia will move into a drier and 
more stable mid- to upper-level environment beginning Friday, which 
is forecast to end the storm's intensification phase and induce a 
gradual weakening trend this weekend and into early next week. The 
official NHC intensity forecast is very similar to the previous one 
and closely follows the HCCA guidance. The intensity forecast 
becomes more track-sensitive by 48 h, as the expected 
west-southwestward turn would keep Felicia to the south of the 26 
deg C isotherm. This should allow the cyclone to remain at or near 
hurricane strength through the end of the forecast period.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  15/0300Z 15.1N 116.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  15/1200Z 15.4N 118.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  16/0000Z 15.5N 120.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 36H  16/1200Z 15.3N 121.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
 48H  17/0000Z 15.0N 123.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
 60H  17/1200Z 14.7N 124.7W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  18/0000Z 14.7N 126.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  19/0000Z 14.8N 130.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  20/0000Z 15.0N 134.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Pasch
 
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