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BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Enrique Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052021
100 AM CDT Sat Jun 26 2021
 
...ENRIQUE STILL FORECAST TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE
TONIGHT OR SATURDAY...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 104.3W
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM SSE OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...115 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Zihuatanejo to Cabo Corrientes Mexico
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Cabo Corrientes to San Blas Mexico
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Enrique was
located near latitude 16.5 North, longitude 104.3 West. Enrique is
moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h).  The storm is
forecast to gradually slow down and turn toward the northwest
Saturday night or Sunday, and then continue on a northwesterly
heading through Monday.  On the forecast track, the core of Enrique
is expected to remain offshore roughly parallel to the southwestern
coast of Mexico during the next two to three days.
 
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (115 km/h) 
with higher gusts.  Rapid strengthening is forecast during the next 
day or so, and Enrique is likely to become a hurricane today.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.29 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Enrique can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5, WMO
header WTPZ45 KNHC, and on the web
at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?key_messages.
 
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are likely occuring in the
eastern portions of the warning area.  These winds are expected to
spread westward within the warning area tonight and through
the weekend.  Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch
area on Sunday.
 
RAINFALL:  Enrique is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 4 to 8 inches with possible isolated maximum amounts of 12
inches through Sunday.  These rains could cause life-threatening
flash floods and mudslides over portions of southwestern Mexico.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Enrique will affect the southwestern
coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please
consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Beven
 
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