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Hurricane ENRIQUE (Text)


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Hurricane Enrique Discussion Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052021
400 PM CDT Sun Jun 27 2021
 
Enrique has been trying to form an eye in visible satellite imagery 
since early this morning. Each time this has occurred, the feature 
has filled in shortly thereafter. The overall appearance and 
structure of the hurricane has changed little today, and the latest 
Dvorak T-number from TAFB indicates that the estimated intensity 
remains 80 kt for this advisory. A pair of earlier ASCAT overpasses 
helped to confirm the size of the wind field of Enrique, and showed 
that tropical storm conditions were occurring within the warned area 
of the coast of Mexico. The data also revealed that the strongest 
core of winds of 50 kt or greater were about 50 n mi offshore.
 
Enrique move a little east of north for several hours today. 
However, over the past couple of hours it appears that the eastward 
component of motion has ceased, and the initial motion is now 360/07 
kt. Embedded in generally weak steering flow, Enrique is currently 
moving toward a weakening mid-level trough over northwestern Mexico. 
A small ridge should build just to the northeast of the cyclone 
tonight, forcing it to turn north-northwest then northwest. This 
northwestward motion should then continue until the system 
dissipates by the middle of the week. Based on the forecast track 
and wind radii, the core of strongest winds associated with Enrique 
are forecast to pass near the southwestern coast of Mexico through 
tonight and any deviation to the right could bring the strongest 
winds to the coast by late tonight.  As a result, the government of 
Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning for a small portion of the 
coast of southwestern Mexico.  In about 72 h, the center of the 
system is forecast to be near the southern tip of the Baja 
California peninsula. 
 
Overall, the environment surrounding Enrique is still favorable for 
strengthening in the near term, and although not shown in the 
official forecast, some slight strengthening could still occur 
through tonight. On Monday, the hurricane is forecast to begin 
moving over waters of decreasing oceanic heat content. Due to the 
fairly slow motion of the cyclone over these waters, upwelling 
should bring cooler waters to the surface. This would induce a 
gradual weakening trend beginning sometime tomorrow. By Tuesday, the 
cyclone is expected to begin moving over much cooler waters and into 
a drier and stable atmospheric environment, which will hasten the 
pace of weakening. Most of the guidance shows Enrique becoming a 
remnant low in a few days. There is some uncertainty as to whether 
or not this transition will occur before the system reaches the 
southern Baja California peninsula. Therefore it is possible that a 
Tropical Storm Watch could be required for a portion of the southern 
Baja California peninsula by tomorrow. After Enrique does finally 
become a remnant low, it should dissipate shortly thereafter. The 
latest NHC intensity forecast is little changed from the previous 
one, and is near the SHIPS/LGEM models through 36 h and the 
corrected consensus HCCA beyond 36 h.
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. The outer rainbands of Enrique are likely to produce heavy rains
across a portion of southwestern Mexico during the next day or two, 
which would likely cause life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides.
 
2. The core of Enrique is forecast to pass near the southwestern 
coast of Mexico tonight and the government of Mexico as issued a 
Hurricane Warning for a portion of that area. Tropical-storm-force 
winds are expected to continue across the remainder of southwestern 
Mexico within the warning areas through early Monday. Hurricane 
conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area. 
 
3. Swells generated by Enrique are expected to affect the
southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells
could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  27/2100Z 19.0N 105.7W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  28/0600Z 19.8N 106.1W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  28/1800Z 20.5N 106.8W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  29/0600Z 21.1N 107.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  29/1800Z 21.8N 107.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 60H  30/0600Z 22.6N 108.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  30/1800Z 23.6N 109.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  01/1800Z 25.5N 112.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  02/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Latto/Brown
 
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Page last modified: Friday, 03-Dec-2021 12:09:43 UTC