ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
Hurricane Enrique Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052021
300 AM MDT Sun Jun 27 2021
 
The central dense overcast of the hurricane has not expanded much 
over the past several hours, and the eye is not apparent on 
geostationary satellite images.  However, Enrique has well-defined 
convective banding features over most of its circulation.  Taking a 
blend of the latest Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB 
gives a current intensity estimate of 80 kt.  A little more 
strengthening could occur today, as reflected in the official 
forecast.  In 24 to 48 hours, cooler sea surface temperatures and 
decreasing oceanic heat content should cause a weakening trend to 
commence.  Later in the forecast period, the cyclone should be 
entraining a drier and more stable air mass near the southern Baja 
California peninsula, which should also contribute to the 
weakening process.  The official intensity forecast is similar to 
the previous one and close to the HFIP Corrected Consensus and FSU 
Superensemble predictions. 
 
Enrique has moved quite slowly overnight and the initial motion 
estimate is north-northwestward, or 330/3 kt.  Steering currents 
are expected to remain rather weak over the next few days.  The 
system is expected to move on a north-northwestward to 
northwestward heading, in the general direction of a weak mid-level 
trough over extreme northwestern Mexico, for the next 2-3 days.  
Later in the forecast period, the weakening cyclone's track should 
gradually bend to the left under the influence of the 
lower-tropospheric environmental flow.  The official track forecast 
is a blend of the latest GFS and ECMWF solutions, and not too 
different from the previous NHC track.
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. The outer rainbands of Enrique are likely to produce heavy rains 
across a portion of southwestern Mexico during the next couple 
of days, which would likely cause life-threatening flash flooding 
and mudslides.
 
2. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected to continue across
portions of southwestern Mexico through early Monday.  Although the
core of Enrique is still forecast to remain just offshore, any
deviation to the right of the forecast track or expansion of the 
wind field could bring even stronger winds onshore over a portion 
of the southwestern coast of Mexico.  Therefore, a Hurricane Watch 
is in effect for a portion of that area.
 
3. Swells generated by Enrique are expected to affect the
southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells
could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  27/0900Z 17.6N 106.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  27/1800Z 18.5N 106.1W   85 KT 100 MPH
 24H  28/0600Z 19.4N 106.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
 36H  28/1800Z 20.1N 107.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  29/0600Z 20.7N 107.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 60H  29/1800Z 21.3N 108.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  30/0600Z 22.1N 109.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  01/0600Z 23.5N 110.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  02/0600Z 24.7N 112.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch
 
NNNN