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Hurricane Enrique Discussion Number   6...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052021
1000 AM CDT Sat Jun 26 2021

Corrected initial storm motion in second paragraph
 
Enrique continues to exhibit a well organized structure on satellite 
imagery. First-light visible shows the formation of a ring of 
overshooting tops along Enrique's north and west sides, a sign that 
an eyewall is organizing. Indeed, a recent 1207 UTC SSMIS microwave 
pass showed this formative eyewall, though some dry air also appears 
to be wrapping around the hurricane along its eastern flank. 
Satellite intensity estimates this morning include subjective Dvorak 
estimates of T4.0/65 kt from TAFB, T4.5/75 kt from SAB, and an 
objective estimate of T4.3/72 kt from UW-CIMSS ADT. The initial 
intensity is increased to 75 kt for this advisory, favoring the 
higher intensity estimates based on the improvement in satellite 
structure since 1200 UTC.
 
Satellite imagery suggests that the estimated motion is beginning to 
bend a bit rightward at 300/06 kt. As the mid-level ridge to the 
north of the storm weakens over the next day or so, Enrique should 
slow down and turn a bit more to the northwest. The large region of 
monsoonal southwesterly flow south and east of the hurricane may 
also be influencing this rightward bend in the track in the short 
term. The new forecast track has shifted again to the right, 
especially over the first 48 hours, following the track guidance 
consensus and close to the most recent ECMWF ensemble mean. The 
small size of the 64-kt wind radii forecast with Enrique should keep 
the highest winds offshore, but any additional eastward track 
adjustments could require hurricane watches for portions of the 
southwestern coast of Mexico later today.

Conditions remains favorable for Enrique to intensify further in the 
short term, and the current rapid intensification cycle is expected 
to continue the next 12 to 24 h with the hurricane peaking at 95 kt. 
Thereafter, an increase in easterly shear could help import dry 
down-sloping flow off the higher Mexican terrain into Enrique's 
core. In addition, the depth of warm sea-surface temperatures along 
Enrique's track becomes increasingly shallow and any further 
slowdown in the forward motion would result in cool ocean upwelling. 
Thus, Enrique is expected to begin weakening after 24 h, and this 
steady weakening should continue through the end of the forecast 
period as sea-surface temperatures decrease along the forecast 
track.
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. The outer rainbands of Enrique are likely to produce heavy rains
across a portion of southwestern Mexico during the next couple days,
which would likely cause life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides.
 
2. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected across portions of
southwestern Mexico today and this weekend, and a Tropical Storm
Warning is in effect for a portion of that area.
 
3. Swells generated by Enrique are expected to affect the
southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells
could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  26/1500Z 17.1N 105.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  27/0000Z 17.5N 105.7W   85 KT 100 MPH
 24H  27/1200Z 18.3N 106.0W   95 KT 110 MPH
 36H  28/0000Z 19.4N 106.4W   90 KT 105 MPH
 48H  28/1200Z 20.1N 107.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
 60H  29/0000Z 20.6N 107.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  29/1200Z 21.3N 108.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  30/1200Z 22.1N 109.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  01/1200Z 22.9N 110.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Papin/Stewart
 
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