ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
Tropical Storm Enrique Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052021
1000 PM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021
 
Enrique's cloud pattern has continued to improve since this 
afternoon.  There has been a notable increase in banding, and the 
Central Dense Overcast has become more symmetric.  In addition, a 
SSMIS microwave overpass from shortly before 0000 UTC revealed an 
improved inner core structure with a band of deep convection 
wrapping about three-quarters of the way around the center. The 
latest subjective Dvorak T-numbers from SAB and TAFB are T3.5 (55 
kt) and T3.0 (45 kt), respectively.  Given the improvement in 
structure the intensity was increased to 55 kt on the 0000 UTC 
intermediate advisory and remains at that value for this advisory. 

The tropical storm is forecast to remain within an environment of 
low vertical wind shear and over warm sea surface temperatures 
during the next 24 to 36 hours.  Those favorable conditions along 
with Enrique's improved inner core structure are likely to result 
in a period of rapid strengthening during the next day or so.  In 
fact, the SHIPS guidance explicitly calls for rapid strengthening, 
and the latest NHC forecast follows suit.  The new NHC intensity 
forecast calls for a peak intensity near major hurricane strength 
in 36 hours and lies between the SHIPS model and the slightly lower 
HCCA and ICON consensus aids.   After 36-48 h, increasing shear, 
and possibly cooler upwelled waters, are likely to induce steady 
weakening throughout the remainder of the forecast period.   

Enrique continues to move west-northwestward or 295/8 kt. A 
mid-level ridge to the north of the storm is forecast to weaken 
over the next day or so which should cause Enrique to slow down and 
bend northwestward between 24 and 60 hours.  After that time, the 
ridge is expected to re-strengthen causing the tropical cyclone to 
turn west-northwestward once again. There has been little overall 
change to the track guidance this cycle, and the updated NHC 
forecast is not very different from before.  It should be noted 
that the GFS and HWRF models depict a sharper northward turn over 
the weekend and bring the center of Enrique somewhat closer to the 
southwestern coast of Mexico than the remainder of the guidance, 
however the most recent run of the HWRF has trended westward during 
the early portion of the forecast.  

 
Key Messages:
 
1. The outer rainbands of Enrique are likely to produce heavy rains
across portions of southwestern Mexico during the next couple of
days, which could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.
 
2. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected across portions of
southwestern Mexico tonight and this weekend, and a Tropical Storm
Warning is in effect for a portion of that area.
 
3. Swells generated by Enrique are expected to affect the
southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells
could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  26/0300Z 16.3N 104.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  26/1200Z 16.7N 105.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  27/0000Z 17.1N 105.9W   85 KT 100 MPH
 36H  27/1200Z 17.8N 106.3W   95 KT 110 MPH
 48H  28/0000Z 18.9N 106.8W   90 KT 105 MPH
 60H  28/1200Z 19.8N 107.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  29/0000Z 20.5N 108.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  30/0000Z 21.5N 109.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  01/0000Z 22.5N 111.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Brown
 
NNNN