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BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Dolores Advisory Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042021
1000 AM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021
 
...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO TROPICAL STORM DOLORES...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR A PORTION
OF THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.7N 102.5W
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM S OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning from
Lazaro Cardenas to Cabo Corrientes and a Hurricane Watch from Punta
San Telmo to Cabo Corrientes.  A Tropical Storm Watch has also been
issued north of Cabo Corrientes to Escuinapa.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Lazaro Cardenas to Cabo Corrientes Mexico
 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Punta San Telmo to Cabo Corrientes Mexico
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Cabo Corrientes to Escuinapa Mexico
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 to 36 hours.
 
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 36 hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dolores was
located near latitude 14.7 North, longitude 102.5 West.  Dolores is
moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h).  A turn 
toward the northwest is expected later today, followed by a turn 
toward the north-northwest and north with an increase in forward 
speed Saturday and Saturday night.  On the forecast track, the 
center of Dolores is expected to cross the coast of west-central 
Mexico within the warning area Saturday evening.  Dolores is then 
expected to move northward along the west-central coast of Mexico 
and then inland over northwestern Mexico Saturday night and Sunday.
 
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) 
with higher gusts.  Additional strengthening is forecast, and 
Dolores could be near hurricane strength when it reaches the coast 
of west-central Mexico by Saturday evening.  Weakening is expected 
Saturday night and Sunday while Dolores moves northward near and 
along the west-central coast of Mexico.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach
the coast within the warning area Saturday afternoon, making 
outside preparations difficult or dangerous.  Hurricane conditions 
are also possible within the hurricane watch area by late Saturday. 
Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm 
watch area Saturday night into Sunday morning.
 
RAINFALL: Dolores will produce heavy rains over coastal sections of
the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco,
and Nayarit during the next few days, with rainfall totals of 6 to
10 inches expected with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches
possible. As a result, life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides
may occur.
 
STORM SURGE:  A storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding
near and to the east of where the center makes landfall.  Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by the depression will affect portions of
the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Berg
 
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