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Tropical Storm Dolores Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042021
1000 AM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021
 
Satellite imagery indicates that Dolores's center is moving onshore
near the Michoacan/Colima border a little to the northwest of Punta
San Telmo, Mexico.  Within its last few hours over water, Dolores's
satellite presentation continued to improve, and an SSMIS microwave 
pass from 1155 UTC showed that the storm has a large, well-defined 
mid-level eye surrounded by a nearly closed eyewall.  Dolores 
appears to be very close to hurricane strength, and its current 
intensity is set at 60 kt as a compromise between estimates of T3.5 
and T4.5 from TAFB and SAB, respectively. 
 
Dolores has been accelerating while approaching the coast, and its
current motion is estimated to be toward the north-northwest (335
degrees) at 11 kt.  With the center forecast to move farther inland
through the day, the mountainous terrain of west-central Mexico is
expected to disrupt the surface circulation, and the model guidance
generally shows the low-level vorticity dissipating in about 12
hours, or less.  To maintain continuity with previous forecasts,
the NHC official forecast maintains a track for 24 hours, showing
Dolores weakening fast and degenerating to a remnant low over
west-central Mexico by this time tomorrow.  However, it is entirely
possible that the surface circulation will have dissipated by
Sunday morning, with the associated rains continuing to spread
northward with the remnant mid-level circulation.

Even though Dolores is making landfall, the hurricane watch for the 
coast of Mexico is being maintained on this advisory since gusts to 
hurricane force could be occurring to the east of where the center 
is moving onshore.
  
Key Messages:
 
1. Even though Dolores had made landfall, tropical storm conditions
are still occurring within the tropical storm warning area and will
spread farther inland across west-central Mexico through the day
and tonight.  Hurricane conditions, especially in gusts, are still
possible for a few more hours within the hurricane watch area.
 
2. Heavy rains are forecast over coastal sections of the Mexican
states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco, Nayarit,
and southern Sinaloa through the weekend, which could result in
life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  19/1500Z 18.6N 103.7W   60 KT  70 MPH...ON THE COAST
 12H  20/0000Z 20.4N 104.2W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 24H  20/1200Z 21.8N 104.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 36H  21/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Berg
 
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