Tropical Storm DOLORES (Text)

Tropical Storm Dolores Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042021
400 PM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021
Dolores is a large, sprawling tropical storm.  Recent scatterometer 
data indicated that the circulation remains broad, with the center 
embedded within an elongated area of lighter winds.  However, the 
scatterometer passes also showed an extensive area of 
tropical-storm-force winds extending up to 140 n mi to the 
northeast of the center, blowing from east to west away from the 
coast of Mexico.  Based on these data, Dolores's initial winds are 
set at 40 kt.

The ASCAT data indicated that Dolores's center is located a little 
farther to the right, or northeast, of the previous NHC track 
forecast.  With this adjusted position, the initial motion is now 
estimated to be northwestward (310 degrees) at 6 kt.  Dolores is 
moving around the western periphery of a mid-level ridge which 
extends across the northwestern Caribbean Sea and southeastern 
Mexico, and this feature should steer the storm northwestward to 
north-northwestward during the next couple of days.  All of the 
reliable track models show this general trajectory, and they bring 
the center inland along the coast of Michoacan, Colima, or Jalisco 
during within the next 18-36 hours, with the timing depending on 
the storm's exact heading.  Because of the eastward adjustment of 
the initial position, the new NHC track forecast has been shifted 
eastward, but it still generally follows the TVCE and HCCA 
consensus aids.

Environmental conditions are generally conducive for additional 
strengthening, particularly warm sea surface temperatures, 
mid-level relative humidity between 70 and 80 percent, and 
significant upper-level divergence.  The two limiting factors to 
intensification are (1) the broad structure of the circulation and 
(2) less potential time over water due to the eastward shift in the 
track.  The updated NHC intensity forecast continues to show 
intensification up until landfall and is generally close to the 
IVCN and HCCA consensus aids.  There is still some possibility that 
Dolores could be near hurricane strength when it reaches the coast 
if the intensification rate is faster than indicated in the 
forecast, or if the center ends up staying over water longer than 
indicated.  After the center crosses the coast, the mountainous 
terrain of west-central Mexico should cause rapid weakening, with 
the cyclone degenerating into a remnant low, and then completely 
dissipating, in 2 to 3 days.

Key Messages:
1. Dolores is expected to continue strengthening tonight and on
Saturday, and it could be near hurricane strength when it reaches
the coast of west-central Mexico by Saturday afternoon.  A tropical
storm warning and a hurricane watch are in effect for portions
of the southwestern and west-central coasts of Mexico.
2. Heavy rains are forecast over coastal sections of the Mexican
states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco, and Nayarit
during the next few days, which could result in life-threatening
flash flooding and mudslides.
INIT  18/2100Z 15.6N 102.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  19/0600Z 16.6N 103.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  19/1800Z 18.5N 104.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  20/0600Z 21.2N 104.7W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 48H  20/1800Z 23.6N 105.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 60H  21/0600Z...DISSIPATED
Forecaster Berg

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Page last modified: Friday, 31-Dec-2021 12:09:48 UTC