ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Post-Tropical Cyclone Carlos Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032021 800 AM PDT Wed Jun 16 2021 Shortwave infrared satellite imagery suggests that Carlos's center has become less defined since last evening's scatterometer passes, and the overall circulation is losing definition as it becomes embedded within the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). Despite the few sporadic bursts of convection that have been occurring, the system has been unable to generate persistent organized deep convection near its center for quite some time, and Carlos is therefore being designated as a remnant low with maximum winds of 25 kt. Moderate westerly shear and ingestion of drier air should cause the remnant low to weaken further, and likely dissipate within the ITCZ in 2 to 3 days. Geostationary and microwave imagery indicates that Carlos has sunk a little farther south than previously estimated, and its 12-hour heading has been toward the west-southwest (240/6 kt). The bulk of the track models show that the remnant low should resume a westward motion later today and then maintain a steady west to west-northwest heading through Friday, steered by the low-level trade winds. The new NHC official track forecast is a blend of the previous forecast and the GFS-ECMWF consensus, and due to the southward-adjusted initial position, is about a half a degree south of the previous forecast. This is the last advisory on Carlos. For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/1500Z 8.6N 135.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 12H 17/0000Z 8.6N 136.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 17/1200Z 8.7N 137.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 18/0000Z 9.0N 138.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 18/1200Z 9.2N 140.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Friday, 31-Dec-2021 12:09:47 UTC