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Tropical Depression Carlos Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032021
800 PM PDT Mon Jun 14 2021
 
Carlos is barely holding on as a tropical cyclone. The depression 
was completely devoid of convection for several hours this afternoon 
with a completely exposed low-level center, but recently a small 
burst of convection pulsed near and to the west-southwest of the 
low-level center. Given the unfavorable environment the system is 
embedded within, this activity is likely to be short-lived. Carlos 
remains a 30-kt tropical depression with this advisory, in best 
agreement with the subjective Dvorak classification received from 
TAFB.

The depression is still moving west-southwestward, or 250/10 kt. 
This general motion will continue for the next 24 h, followed by a 
westward motion to the south of a low- to mid-level ridge that 
should continue through Carlos' dissipation. The latest NHC track 
forecast track is somewhat faster and slightly south of the previous 
one, in agreement with the latest multi-model consensus.

Despite reasonably warm sea-surface temperatures along its track, 
Carlos is expected to continue battling intrusions of dry air from 
its surrounding environment as well as increasing west-southwesterly 
shear. Therefore, the future looks bleak for Carlos, and the system 
appears likely to degenerate to a remnant low within the next 24 h 
or so. This forecast is consistent with the latest GFS and ECMWF 
simulated satellite imagery, which shows little potential for any 
sustained, organized convection going forward. The majority of the 
global guidance now suggests that the remnant low will dissipate by 
Friday night, which is reflected in this forecast advisory.   
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  15/0300Z 10.5N 130.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  15/1200Z 10.1N 132.1W   25 KT  30 MPH
 24H  16/0000Z  9.8N 133.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  16/1200Z  9.7N 135.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  17/0000Z  9.7N 136.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  17/1200Z  9.8N 137.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  18/0000Z 10.0N 139.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  19/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Pasch
 
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