ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Storm Blanca Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022021 900 AM MDT Tue Jun 01 2021 Blanca's satellite appearance has degraded some this morning, with the convective structure evolving more into a shear pattern. Recent SSMIS microwave passes and first-light visible imagery suggest the center is now located on the southwest edge of a recent convective burst. The latest subjective Dvorak classifications are lower than last night with T2.5/35 kt from SAB and T3.0/45 kt from TAFB. The initial intensity was kept at 50 kt for this advisory, but that could be generous. The cyclone's estimated motion is 300/6 kt, a bit more westward than before. The track philosophy has not changed much this advisory, as a mid- to upper-level trough near the Baja California peninsula is beginning to weaken the steering ridge. Thus, Blanca is expected to move generally west-northwestward with a continued decrease in forward speed over the next couple of days. Afterwards, the system should turn more westward within the low-level trade winds as it becomes vertically shallow. The latest NHC forecast track is a bit further southward than the previous advisory, but remains close to the HCCA corrected consensus aid. First-light visible imagery suggests that the low-level center of Blanca may be in the process of becoming exposed. Owing to the degradation in the current satellite structure, Blanca is no longer expected to intensify, and in fact may already be weaker than currently estimated. Increasing vertical wind shear appears to be disrupting the current structure of the cyclone. A gradual weakening trend is now forecast to begin by this evening through the end of the forecast period as Blanca moves into an environment of drier mid-level air and cooler sea surface temperatures. The NHC intensity forecast remains close to the HCCA and ICON consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/1500Z 14.3N 110.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 02/0000Z 14.8N 110.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 02/1200Z 15.2N 111.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 03/0000Z 15.5N 112.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 03/1200Z 15.6N 112.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 04/0000Z 15.7N 113.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 04/1200Z 15.8N 114.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 05/1200Z 16.1N 116.7W 25 KT 30 MPH 120H 06/1200Z 16.5N 118.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Papin/Stewart NNNN
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