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Tropical Storm Wanda Discussion Number  21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL212021
300 AM GMT Fri Nov 05 2021
 
The cloud pattern of Wanda has generally changed little during the
past several hours.  The storm is still producing bands of deep
convection near and to the west of the center, with dry and stable
air limiting the amount of convection on the east side.  An ASCAT
pass from a few hours ago showed maximum winds in the 40-45 kt
range, and based on that data and the Dvorak estimates, the initial
intensity is nudged up to 45 kt.
 
Satellite images indicate that Wanda has turned to the right, with
the latest initial motion estimated to be 090/5 kt.  Wanda is
expected to turn southeastward on Friday and then southward on
Saturday as a mid-level ridge builds to the north and west of the
cyclone.  After that time, a deep-layer trough is expected to
approach Wanda, resulting in a turn to the northeast at increasing
forward speeds Sunday and Monday. The latest models have trended
southward during the next couple of days, and the NHC track
forecast has been adjusted in that direction.
 
Wanda will likely move over slightly warmer waters and into a more 
unstable environment during the next couple of days, which should 
allow the storm to maintain its intensity or strengthen slightly 
during that time period. The global models all agree that Wanda will 
merge with a strong front in about 72 hours. Therefore, the new NHC 
forecast shows extratropical transition completing by that time 
period.  The NHC intensity forecast lies near the high end of the 
guidance in the short term, but is near the middle of the guidance 
envelope after that.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  05/0300Z 42.3N  38.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  05/1200Z 41.0N  38.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  06/0000Z 39.1N  38.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  06/1200Z 37.5N  37.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  07/0000Z 37.7N  37.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 60H  07/1200Z 40.5N  34.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  08/0000Z 44.4N  29.9W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  09/0000Z 50.8N  21.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  10/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
 
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