Tropical Storm WANDA (Text)

Tropical Storm Wanda Discussion Number  20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL212021
900 PM GMT Thu Nov 04 2021
Wanda continues to maintain bands of moderately deep convection
near the center, mainly over the northwestern semicircle.  The 
cyclone also continues to show anticyclonic outflow.   However, 
cold air clouds continue to wrap around the southern side of the 
circulation, and in the big picture Wanda still gives the appearance 
of being embedded in a larger-scale baroclinic low.  There has been 
little change in the satellite intensity estimates since the 
previous advisory, so the initial intensity is held at 40 kt.

Wanda is starting its anticipated turn and the initial motion is now 
045/5.  During the next day or two,  a narrow mid-latitude ridge is 
forecast to build to the northwest of the cyclone, and this should 
cause Wanda to turn southeastward and southward by the 48 h point.  
By 60-72 h, another mid-latitude trough approaching Wanda should 
cause a northeastward turn with acceleration, with this motion 
persisting through the end of the forecast period.  The new guidance 
again shows a little more southward motion by 48 h than the previous 
guidance, and the new forecast track is adjusted a little southward 
near that time.
Little change in strength is likely during the next 24 h as Wanda
remains over sea surface temperatures of near 20C.  By 48 h, the
southward motion brings the center over slightly warmer water, and 
at that time the cyclone should interact with an upper-level low 
that develops nearby.  This combination could allow some 
strengthening, and the intensity forecast show modest strengthening 
from 24-48 h.  Many of the guidance models continue to show more 
strengthening and a higher intensity than the official forecast 
between 48-72 h, and some adjustment may be needed to that part of 
the forecast in later advisories if this trend persists.  Between 
72-96 h, Wanda is expected to merge with a frontal system and 
become extratropical over the northeastern Atlantic.
INIT  04/2100Z 42.4N  39.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  05/0600Z 41.9N  38.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  05/1800Z 40.1N  38.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  06/0600Z 38.5N  38.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  06/1800Z 38.0N  37.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 60H  07/0600Z 39.2N  35.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  07/1800Z 42.6N  32.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  08/1800Z 49.0N  23.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  09/1800Z 53.0N  12.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
Forecaster Beven

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Page last modified: Friday, 31-Dec-2021 12:09:41 UTC