ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Depression Peter Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162021 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 22 2021 Peter is barely hanging on to its status as a tropical cyclone this morning. While still closed, the low-level circulation continues to look increasingly diffuse on satellite imagery. In addition, the convective activity, which lacks much organization, remains displaced well to the northeast by moderate to strong southwesterly vertical wind shear. A blend of the latest subjective satellite intensity estimates support keeping Peter as a 30-kt tropical depression this advisory. As has been the story for the last few days, Peter will continue to deal with a lethal combo of 25-35 kt southwesterly vertical wind shear while embedded in a relatively dry mid-level air environment. These factors should ultimately lead to Peter's demise as a tropical cyclone, with the latest NHC intensity forecast moving the timing up for post-tropical remnant low status to 24 hours. This degeneration could occur as soon as this afternoon if more organized convection does not soon return near the center. Alternatively, Peter may also open up into a trough at any time since the center continues to gradually lose definition. Similar to prior nights, Peter made another jog to the left after overnight convection diminished near the center. More recently, the depression has begun a slow north-northwestward motion estimated at 330/6 kt. The cyclone is expected to turn northward and then northeastward over the next 24 hours as low-level ridging breaks down south of a deep-layer trough located near Bermuda. The NHC track forecast early on is a bit west of the previous one due to the leftward initial position, but falls in line to a similar track after 24 hours, continuing to split the difference between the GFS and ECMWF models. As Peter moves poleward away from Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and the Virgin Islands, the threat of heavy rainfall for these regions associated with the system has diminished. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/1500Z 21.6N 66.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 23/0000Z 22.3N 67.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 23/1200Z 23.3N 67.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 24/0000Z 24.2N 66.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 24/1200Z 25.1N 66.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 25/0000Z 26.3N 65.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Friday, 31-Dec-2021 12:09:32 UTC