ZCZC NFDTCPAT4 ALL TTAA00 KWNH DDHHMM BULLETIN Tropical Depression Nicholas Advisory Number 14 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD AL142021 1000 AM CDT Wed Sep 15 2021 ...NICHOLAS MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA... ...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING REMAINS A POSSIBILITY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.4N 92.8W ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM NE OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM W OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- Flash Flood Watches are in effect along the central Gulf Coast in portions of southern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nicholas was located near latitude 30.4 North, longitude 92.8 West. The depression is moving toward the east-northeast near 5 mph (7 km/h) and this motion is expected to slow through the next 24 hours before a gradual turn to the north prior to dissipation. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts over water and near thunderstorms. Continued weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours with the center of circulation possibly becoming quite diffuse by late Thursday. However, heavier rainfall will continue to remain a threat as tropical moisture persists across the Gulf Coast region. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Nicholas is expected to produce additional rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches across the central Gulf coast in central to southeastern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle through Friday, with isolated storm totals of 10 inches possible. Life-threatening flash flooding impacts, especially in urban areas, remain a possibility in these areas. Widespread minor river flooding is expected, while isolated moderate river flooding is possible, across portions of southern Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama into the Florida Panhandle. For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with Tropical Depression Nicholas see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS4 with the WMO header ACUS44KWBC or at the following link https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc4.html TORNADOES: A tornado or two will be possible today in southeast Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southwest Alabama, and the western Florida Panhandle. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Wpc Forecaster FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/1500Z 30.4N 92.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 16/0000Z 30.6N 92.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 24H 16/1200Z 30.8N 92.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND 36H 17/0000Z 31.1N 92.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 17/1200Z 31.3N 92.4W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED NNNN
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