ZCZC NFDTCPAT4 ALL TTAA00 KWNH DDHHMM BULLETIN Tropical Depression Nicholas Advisory Number 13 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD AL142021 400 AM CDT Wed Sep 15 2021 ...NICHOLAS MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS... ...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.1N 93.8W ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM NNE OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS ABOUT 35 MI...60 KM W OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- Flash Flood Watches are in effect along the central Gulf Coast in portions of southern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nicholas was located near latitude 30.1 North, longitude 93.8 West. The depression is moving toward the east near 3 mph (6 km/h) and this slow eastward motion is expected to continue today, followed by a stall and very slow movement on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady weakening is forecast over the next couple days, with Nicholas dissipating sometime Thursday Night or Friday. Note that rain chances will continue along the central Gulf Coast through the weekend and into early next week as tropical moisture lingers in the region, even after the circulation of Nicholas dissipates. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Nicholas is expected to produce additional rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches across the central Gulf coast in south central to southeastern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle through Friday, with isolated storm totals of 10 inches possible. Life-threatening flash flooding impacts, especially in urban areas, are possible across these regions. Widespread minor river flooding is expected, while isolated moderate river flooding is possible, across portions of southern Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama into the Florida Panhandle. For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with Tropical Depression Nicholas see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS4 with the WMO header ACUS44KWBC or at the following link: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc4.html TORNADOES: A tornado or two will be possible today in southeast Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southwest Alabama, and the western Florida Panhandle. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Lamers FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0900Z 30.1N 93.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 12H 15/1800Z 30.2N 93.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 24H 16/0600Z 30.3N 93.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND 36H 16/1800Z 30.4N 92.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 17/0600Z 30.6N 93.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED NNNN
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