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TROPICAL STORM NICHOLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142021
0900 UTC MON SEP 13 2021
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PORT ARANSAS TO SAN LUIS PASS TEXAS
* ARANSAS BAY...SAN ANTONIO BAY...AND MATAGORDA BAY
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PORT ARANSAS TO FREEPORT TEXAS
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO HIGH ISLAND TEXAS
* BARRA EL MEZQUITAL TO THE U.S./MEXICO BORDER
 
A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO PORT ARANSAS TEXAS
* SAN LUIS PASS TEXAS TO RUTHERFORD BEACH LOUISIANA...INCLUDING
GALVESTON BAY
* BAFFIN BAY AND CORPUS CHRISTI BAY
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF HIGH ISLAND TEXAS TO SABINE PASS
 
A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING 
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE 
COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR 
A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER 
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT 
HURRICANES.GOV.  THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION.  PERSONS 
LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO 
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR 
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS.  PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER 
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
 
A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN
THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF
AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE
WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS COAST AND SOUTHWESTERN
LOUISIANA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.5N  96.6W AT 13/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT  12 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT.......100NE  80SE   0SW  20NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.5N  96.6W AT 13/0900Z
AT 13/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.1N  96.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 27.3N  96.8W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  30SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 29.2N  96.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 100SE  20SW  20NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 30.6N  95.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 100SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 31.5N  94.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 32.1N  93.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 32.5N  91.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.5N  96.6W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 13/1200Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
 
 
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