Tropical Depression TEN (Text)

Tropical Depression Ten Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102021
1100 PM AST Sun Aug 29 2021
The depression is looking poorly organized this evening, with the 
low-level center exposed for the past several hours, and only a 
small area of convection located over 50 n mi east of the center. 
Strong west-northwesterly shear on the order of 20 to 30 kt due to a 
nearby subtropical jet stream has been impacting the cyclone since 
earlier today. A recent ASCAT pass showed peak winds of 29 kt, so 
the initial advisory intensity is being kept at 30 kt. The shear is 
forecast to increase even more later tonight and persist through 
Monday night. If the depression survives through that time period, 
then it may have an opportunity to strengthen in a few days when the 
cyclone moves north of the jet stream. The official NHC intensity 
forecast was little changed from the previous one, and is close to 
the HCCA and IVCN consensus.

The lack of deep convection has likely been the cause of a wobble to 
the northwest over the past several hours, as the shallow depression 
has been steered primarily the low-level trade wind flow. The 
overall motion over the past 12 h is 350/7 kt. A weakness in the 
subtropical ridge to the north of the depression should induce a 
generally northward motion over the next few days. By the middle of 
this week, the weakness in the ridge is forecast to fill in, and 
force the cyclone on more of a northwestward path. The guidance 
continues to shift to the west with their solutions, as they come 
into better agreement on the strength of the ridge, and the NHC 
foreast has followed suit with a shift to the west. However, the 
latest NHC track forecast remains to the east of all of the 
consensus track guidance. Therefore, further future adjustments to 
the track may be necessary.
INIT  30/0300Z 20.1N  50.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  30/1200Z 21.1N  50.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  31/0000Z 22.4N  50.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  31/1200Z 23.5N  50.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  01/0000Z 24.5N  50.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 60H  01/1200Z 25.6N  51.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  02/0000Z 27.0N  51.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  03/0000Z 30.0N  53.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  04/0000Z 34.0N  53.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
Forecaster Latto

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Page last modified: Friday, 31-Dec-2021 12:09:24 UTC