Tropical Depression TEN (Text)

Tropical Depression Ten Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102021
500 PM AST Sat Aug 28 2021
This afternoon's satellite presentation consists of an exposed
surface circulation with a rather shapeless convective mass
displaced to the east and north of the center.  Without question,
the 15 to 20 kt of west-northwesterly shear is doing a number on
the cloud pattern.  Also evident, are a number of arc clouds
propagating away from the system's deep convection, certainly
indicative of dry air intrusion.  Consequently, the initial
intensity is once again held at 30 kt for this advisory.
The global models as well as the Decay SHIPS (ECMWF/GFS) intensity
guidance still show the shear relaxing a bit tonight and into
Sunday, which should allow the depression to briefly become a 
tropical storm.  By Monday, however, the shear is forecast to 
increase while the cyclone moves into an even more dry and stable 
air mass.  These inhibiting contributions should stifle further 
strengthening and weaken the cyclone back to a depression through 
the remainder of the forecast period.  It's worth mentioning that 
the GFS indicates that the depression will become a remnant low in 
72 hours while turning northwestward to west-northwestward within 
the tradewind flow and dissipate by the end of the week.  For now, 
the NHC forecast will stick with the consensus intensity models and 
the SHIPS guidance which agree on maintaining a depression through 
day 5.
The initial motion is estimated to be northward, or 360/7 kt.  The
depression remains embedded in low- to mid-level southerly flow
produced by a mid-Atlantic trough dominating the central Atlantic.
This synoptic feature, along with a subtropical high pressure 
located over the east Atlantic and western Africa, should influence 
a generally northward motion through the 5-day period.  The 
official track forecast again is adjusted a little to the right of 
the previous advisory beyond day 3, and lies between the TVCN and 
HCCA multimodel solutions.
INIT  28/2100Z 15.6N  50.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  29/0600Z 16.6N  50.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  29/1800Z 18.2N  49.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  30/0600Z 19.8N  49.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  30/1800Z 21.3N  49.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 60H  31/0600Z 22.5N  48.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  31/1800Z 23.8N  49.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  01/1800Z 27.2N  50.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  02/1800Z 30.5N  51.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
Forecaster Roberts

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Page last modified: Friday, 31-Dec-2021 12:09:24 UTC