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Tropical Depression EIGHT (Text)


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Tropical Depression Eight Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082021
1100 AM AST Mon Aug 16 2021
 
Although the center of the depression is embedded beneath deep 
convection, Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB are not a consensus 
T2.5 quite yet.  Therefore, the depression is still estimated to be 
producing maximum winds of 30 kt.  Very warm waters and low to 
moderate deep-layer shear are expected to support strengthening 
during the next couple of days.  After 48 hours, strong northerly to 
northeasterly shear of 25-30 kt is likely halt any intensification.  
For the most part, the NHC intensity forecast is very close to the 
tightly clustered SHIPS, LGEM, HCCA, and IVCN aids.  As we've seen 
in several cases this year, the HWRF is a notable high outlier, 
bringing the system to category 2 hurricane strength in 2-3 days.  
Given the expected shear, that solution does not appear likely at 
this point.

The depression has been moving southward, or 185/8 kt, and it is 
expected to rotate around a mid-tropospheric high located over the 
western Atlantic.  Track models are in general agreement that the 
system will make a clockwise loop in the coming days, with most of 
the disagreement being in how sharp the turn will be.  In part due 
to the system's initial motion, the updated NHC track forecast now 
shows a wider, sweeping loop and is close to the TVCA consensus aid. 
It should be noted that the ECMWF and HCCA aids are even farther 
south and show an even more gradual turn.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  16/1500Z 31.3N  62.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  17/0000Z 30.6N  63.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  17/1200Z 30.2N  63.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  18/0000Z 29.9N  64.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  18/1200Z 29.8N  66.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 60H  19/0000Z 29.9N  67.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  19/1200Z 30.1N  68.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  20/1200Z 31.0N  70.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  21/1200Z 33.1N  69.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Berg
 
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Page last modified: Monday, 06-Dec-2021 12:09:17 UTC