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Tropical Depression Grace Intermediate Advisory Number 13A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072021
200 PM EDT Mon Aug 16 2021
 
...HEAVY RAINS FROM GRACE SPREADING WESTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN 
HAITI...
...RISK OF FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES TO CONTINUE IN HISPANIOLA 
THROUGH TUESDAY...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...17.8N 71.6W
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM SE OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
ABOUT 415 MI...670 KM E OF MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The Tropical Storm Watch for the Dominican Republic has been 
discontinued.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Southern coast of the Cuban provinces of Santiago de Cuba, Granma,
Las Tunas, and Camaguey
* Cayman Islands
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Entire coast of Haiti
* Jamaica
* Southern coast of the Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Sancti
Spiritus, Cienfuegos, and Matanzas, as well as Isla de la Juventud.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
Interests elsewhere in Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico
should monitor the progress of Grace.  Additional watches or
warnings are possible later today or tonight.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Grace
was located near latitude 17.8 North, longitude 71.6 West.  Grace 
is now moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and 
this general motion is expected to continue over the next several 
days.  On the forecast track, the center of Grace will move over or 
near the Tiburon Peninsula of Haiti this afternoon and tonight, and 
then pass between Jamaica, Cuba, and the Cayman Islands on Tuesday 
and Wednesday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and
Grace is expected to become a tropical storm again by Tuesday.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC
and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages.
 
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are possible in Haiti this 
afternoon into tonight, and in Jamaica on Tuesday.  Tropical storm 
conditions are expected along the southern coast of Cuba within the 
warning area on Tuesday, and over the Cayman Islands beginning late 
Tuesday into early Wednesday.  Tropical storm conditions are 
possible along the southern coast of Cuba within the watch area 
Tuesday night and Wednesday.
 
RAINFALL:  Grace is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts:
 
Over Haiti and the Dominican Republic...5 to 10 inches of rain with
isolated maximum totals of 15 inches are expected across the
southern terrain areas through Tuesday. This heavy rainfall may lead
to flash and urban flooding, and possible mudslides.
 
Over Cuba, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands...2 to 4 inches of rain
with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches are expected through
Thursday.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Grace will continue to affect portions of
Hispaniola and Puerto Rico over the next day or so, and will spread
westward to Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and the southern coast
of Cuba.  These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Berg
 
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