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BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Grace Advisory Number  27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072021
1000 PM CDT Thu Aug 19 2021
 
...GRACE BEGINNING TO INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
...HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.8N 91.8W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM NW OF CAMPECHE MEXICO
ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM E OF TUXPAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The Meteorological Service of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical
Storm Warning for the Yucatan Peninsula east of Progresso.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of mainland Mexico from Puerto Veracruz to Cabo Rojo
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from Progresso to Campeche
* The coast of mainland Mexico from north of Cabo Rojo to Barra del
Tordo
 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.  Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Grace was 
located near latitude 20.8 North, longitude 91.8 West. Grace is 
moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h). A general westward 
motion is expected tonight, followed by a general westward to 
west-southwestward motion at a slower speed beginning on Friday. On 
the forecast track, the center of Grace is forecast to move across 
the southwestern Gulf of Mexico tonight and Friday, and then make 
landfall along the coast of mainland Mexico late Friday or Friday 
night.
 
Reports from NOAA and Air Force reserve Hurricane hunter aircraft 
indicate that maximum sustained winds are now near 65 mph (100 km/h) 
with higher gusts.  Additional strengthening is likely until Grace 
makes landfall, and the system is expected to regain hurricane 
strength on Friday.  After landfall, Grace should weaken rapidly as 
it moves into the mountains of central Mexico.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km)
from the center.
 
The latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force 
reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 994 mb (29.36 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC
and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages.
 
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area in mainland Mexico by late Friday.  Tropical storm conditions
are expected within the tropical storm warning area in mainland
Mexico by late Friday.
 
RAINFALL: Grace is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts:
 
Over north-central portions of the Yucatan Peninsula...an additional
to 3 inches of rain overnight, with isolated maximum totals of 12
inches. Lingering areas of flash and urban flooding will be possible
into early Friday morning.
 
Over Veracruz, Puebla, Tlaxcala, Hidalgo, northern Queretaro, and
eastern San Luis Potosi...6 to 12 inches of rain with isolated maxim
totals of 18 inches are expected from Friday through Sunday. Heavy
rainfall from Grace will result in areas of flash and urban flooding
as well as mudslides.
 
STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as 
much as 3 to 5 ft above normal tide levels within the hurricane 
warning area along the immediate coast of mainland Mexico near and 
to the north of where the center makes landfall Friday night. Near 
the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive 
waves.
 
SURF: High surf generated by Grace will begin to affect the
southern Gulf of Mexico coastline on Friday and continue into the
weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions.  Please consult products from your local
weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Beven
 
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