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BULLETIN
Hurricane Grace Advisory Number  24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072021
400 AM CDT Thu Aug 19 2021
 
...GRACE PASSING JUST SOUTH OF COZUMEL AS THE HURRICANE APPROACHES
THE COAST OF THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA...
...STRONG WINDS AND A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE SPREADING ONSHORE NOW...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.0N 87.2W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM SE OF TULUM MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from Cancun to Punta Herrero,
including Cozumel
 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The coast of mainland Mexico from Puerto Veracruz to Cabo Rojo
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from north of Cancun to Campeche
* Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from south of Punta Herrero to Puerto
Costa Maya
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Southern coast Cuban province of Pinar del Rio, as well as Isla
de la Juventud
* The coast of mainland Mexico north of Cabo Rojo to Puerto de
Altamira
 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.  Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.
 
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.  A hurricane warning will likely be required for 
portions of the Watch area later this morning or afternoon.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.
 
Interests elsewhere in eastern mainland Mexico should monitor the
progress of Grace.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Grace was located
near latitude 20.0 North, longitude 87.2 West. Grace is moving
toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h). A general westward to west-
northwestward motion is expected through Friday, followed by a
general westward to west-southwestward motion.  On the forecast
track, Grace is expected to make landfall in the eastern Yucatan
Peninsula during soon, move across the Yucatan Peninsula today, and 
move over the southwest Gulf of Mexico late tonight through Friday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Some slight strengthening is still possible before landfall 
on the Yucatan Peninsula. Grace is expected to weaken as it crosses 
Yucatan, but re-intensification is expected when the center reaches 
the Gulf of Mexico.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the 
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles 
(220 km). A Weatherflow station located at Cancun, Mexico, recently 
measured a sustained wind of 56 mph (88 km/h) and a gust to 79 mph 
(127 km/h), while another Weatherflow station located at Puerto 
Morelos, Mexico, recently measured a sustained wind of 51 mph (83 
km/h) a gust to 70 mph (113 km/h). On Cozumel, a sustained wind of 
41 mph (66 km/h) and a gust to 60 mph (96 km/h) was observed at the 
Cozumel Lighthouse, while a sustained wind of 40 mph (77 km/h) and 
a gust to 64 mph (103 km/h) were measured by a Weatherflow site 
near the airport.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC
and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages.
 
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area in
the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next few hours, and
tropical storm conditions are continuing to spread onshore.
Hurricane and tropical storm conditions will spread inland across
the Yucatan Peninsula during the day today.  Hurricane conditions
are possible in the hurricane watch area in mainland Mexico by late
Friday, and tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical
storm watch area in mainland Mexico by late Friday.  Tropical storm
conditions are possible along the southern coast of Cuba within the
watch area for the next several hours.
 
RAINFALL:
Grace is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts:
 
Over north-central portions of the Yucatan Peninsula... 4 to 8 
inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches are 
expected through Friday. Heavy rainfall from Grace will likely 
result in areas of flash and urban flooding.
 
Over central to northern Veracruz, northern Puebla and into
Hidalgo... 5 to 10 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 15
inches are expected from Friday through Sunday. Heavy rainfall from
Grace will likely result in areas of flash and urban flooding, and
will also be capable of producing mudslides.
 
STORM SURGE:  A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by
as much as 3 to 5 ft above normal tide levels along the immediate
coast near and to the north of where the center makes landfall in
the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula later this morning, and along the
eastern mainland coast of Mexico Friday night or early Saturday.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Grace will spread westward from Jamaica
and the Cayman Islands to the southern coast of Cuba and the Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico through today.  These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please
consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Stewart
 
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