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BULLETIN
Hurricane Grace Advisory Number  23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072021
1000 PM CDT Wed Aug 18 2021
 
...GRACE EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ON THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA
OF MEXICO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...
...EXPECTED TO BRING STRONG WINDS AND A DANGEROUS STORM
SURGE TO PORTIONS OF THAT AREA...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.8N 85.6W
ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM ESE OF TULUM MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The Meteorological Service of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch
for the coast of mainland Mexico from Puerto Veracruz to Cabo Rojo,
and a Tropical Storm Watch from the coast of mainland Mexico north
of Cabo Rojo to Puerto de Altamira.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from Cancun to Punta Herrero,
including Cozumel
 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The coast of mainland Mexico from Puerto Veracruz to Cabo Rojo
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from north of Cancun to Campeche
* Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from south of Punta Herrero to Puerto
Costa Maya
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Southern coast Cuban province of Pinar del Rio, as well as Isla
de la Juventud
* The coast of mainland Mexico north of Cabo Rojo to Puerto de
Altamira
 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.  Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.
 
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.
 
Interests elsewhere in eastern mainland Mexico should monitor the
progress of Grace.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Grace was located
near latitude 19.8 North, longitude 85.6 West. Grace is moving
toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h).  A general west- 
northwestward to westward motion is expected through Friday, 
followed by a general westward to west-southwestward motion.  On the 
forecast track, Grace is expected to make landfall in the eastern 
Yucatan Peninsula during the next six to twelve hours, move across 
the Yucatan Peninsula on Thursday, and move over the southwest Gulf 
of Mexico late Thursday through Friday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Some strengthening is expected before landfall on the 
Yucatan peninsula.  Grace is expected to weaken as it crosses 
Yucatan, but re-intensification is expected when the center reaches 
the Gulf of Mexico.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).
 
The latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force 
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 988 mb (29.18 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC
and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages.
 
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area in 
the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico late tonight or early Thursday, with
tropical storm conditions beginning during the next few hours.
Hurricane and tropical storm conditions will spread inland the
Yucatan Peninsula during the day Thursday.  Hurricane conditions
are possible in the hurricane watch area in mainland Mexico by by
late Friday, and tropical storm conditions are possible in the
tropical storm watch area in mainland Mexico by late Friday.  
Tropical storm conditions are possible along the southern coast of 
Cuba within the watch area for the next several hours.
 
RAINFALL:
The system is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts:
 
Over central and northern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula...4 to 8
inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches are
expected through Friday. Heavy rainfall from Grace will likely
result in areas of flash and urban flooding.
 
Over central to northern Veracruz...5 to 10 inches of rain with
isolated maximum totals of 15 inches are expected from Friday
through Sunday. Heavy rainfall from Grace will likely result in
areas of flash and urban flooding, and will also be capable of
producing mudslides.
 
STORM SURGE:  A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by 
as much as 3 to 5 ft above normal tide levels along the immediate 
coast near and to the north of where the center makes landfall in 
the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula late tonight or early Thursday 
and along the eastern mainland coast of Mexico Friday night or 
early Saturday. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by 
large and destructive waves.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Grace will spread westward from Jamaica
and the Cayman Islands to the southern coast of Cuba and the Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico through Thursday.  These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please
consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Beven
 
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