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BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Grace Advisory Number  18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072021
500 PM EDT Tue Aug 17 2021
 
...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA OF MEXICO...
...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.4N 77.9W
ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM S OF MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA
ABOUT 225 MI...360 KM ESE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning for the
eastern Yucatan Peninsula from Cancun to Punta Herrero including
Cozumel, a Tropical Storm Warning from north of Cancun to Cabo
Catoche, and a Tropical Storm Warning from south of Punta Herrero to
Puerto Costa Maya.

The government of the Cayman Islands has issued a Hurricane Watch 
for the Cayman Islands. 
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from Cancun to Punta Herrero,
including Cozumel

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cayman Islands
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Jamaica
* Southern coast of the Cuban provinces of Santiago de Cuba, Granma,
Las Tunas, and Camaguey
* Cayman Islands
* Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from north of Cancun to Cabo Catoche
* Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from south of Punta Herrero to Puerto
Costa Maya
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Southern coast of the Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Sancti
Spiritus, Cienfuegos, Matanzas, and Pinar del Rio, as well as Isla
de la Juventud.
 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.  Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. 
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.
 
Interests elsewhere in the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico should
monitor the progress of Grace.
 
Additional watches or warnings may be required tonight.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Grace was 
located near the northwest coast of Jamaica at latitude 18.4 North, 
longitude 77.9 West. Grace is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 
km/h).  A general westward to west-northwestward motion is expected 
for the next several days.  On the forecast track, the center of 
Grace will continue to move near the northwestern coast of Jamaica 
for the next few hours.  Grace is forecast to move near or over the 
Cayman Islands late tonight and early Wednesday, and then approach 
the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico late Wednesday or early Thursday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Grace is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane on Wednesday, with 
some additional strengthening possible prior to the center reaching 
the Yucatan Peninsula.  
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.  The official reporting station in Kingston, 
Jamaica, has reported sustained winds of 47 mph (76 km/h) and a 
gust to 54 mph (87 km/h) within the past few hours. 
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC
and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages.
 
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue over
portions of Jamaica through this evening.  Tropical storm
conditions are expected  along the southern coast of Cuba within the
warning area through this evening, and over the Cayman Islands
beginning tonight and into early Wednesday.  Hurricane conditions 
are possible in the Cayman Islands by early Wednesday.  Tropical 
storm conditions are possible along the southern coast of Cuba 
within the watch area tonight and Wednesday. Hurricane conditions 
are expected for the warning area in the Yucatan Peninsula of 
Mexico on Wednesday night, but tropical storm conditions could 
begin as early as Wednesday evening. 
 
RAINFALL:  The system is expected to produce the following rainfall 
amounts:

Over Haiti...an additional 1 to 2 inches of rain with isolated 
maximum totals of 15 inches are expected across the southern terrain 
areas today.  This heavy rainfall will likely cause flash and 
urban flooding, along with possible mudslides.

Over far southern Cuba...and additional 2 to 4 inches of rain. 
Additional heavy rainfall could lead to flash and urban 
flooding, along with possible mudslides. 

Over Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and portions of the Yucatan 
Peninsula....3 to 6 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 
10 inches are expected through Thursday.  This heavy rainfall could 
lead to flash and urban flooding.
 
STORM SURGE: A storm surge could raise water levels as high as 1 to 
3 ft above normal tide levels in portions of the Cayman Islands. 

A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 3-5 
feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast near and to 
the north of where the center makes landfall in the northeastern 
Yucatan Peninsula late Wednesday or early Thursday. Near the 
coast,the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Grace will spread westward from Jamaica
to the Cayman Islands, the southern coast of Cuba, and the
Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch
 
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