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BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Grace Advisory Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072021
1100 AM AST Sun Aug 15 2021
 
...GRACE REMAINS DISORGANIZED WHILE MOVING JUST SOUTH OF PUERTO
RICO...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.2N 66.0W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM S OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM ESE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra
* Dominican Republic from the southern Haitian border to Samana
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North coast of the Dominican Republic from the Haitian border to
Samana
* Entire coast of Haiti
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
Interests elsewhere in the the Turks and Caicos Islands, the
southeastern Bahamas, and Cuba should monitor the progress of Grace.
Additional watches and warnings could be required for some of these
areas later today.
 
For storm information specific to your area in the United States, 
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor 
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast 
office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the 
United States, please monitor products issued by your national 
meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Grace was
located near latitude 17.2 North, longitude 66.0 West. Grace is
moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h).  A continued
west-northwestward motion at a slower forward speed is expected over
the next few days.  On the forecast track, the center of Grace will 
move over Hispaniola on Monday, near or over eastern Cuba on 
Tuesday, and near or over west-central Cuba on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast until Grace moves over Hispaniola on 
Monday.  Weakening is forecast while the system crosses Hispaniola 
Monday and Monday night.  Some restrengthening could occur if 
the center moves back over water on Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC
and on the web at 
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages.
 
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of
the warning areas in the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico today,
and in the Dominican Republic tonight and Monday.  Tropical storm
conditions are possible within the watch area in the Dominican
Republic Monday, and in Haiti on Monday night.
 
RAINFALL:  The system is expected to produce the following rainfall 
amounts today into Tuesday:

Virgin Islands...3 to 6 inches.  This rainfall may produce 
scattered areas of flash and urban flooding.

Over Puerto Rico...3 to 6 inches, with isolated higher amounts.  
Heavy rainfall could lead to flash, urban and small stream flooding 
and possible mudslides. 

Over Haiti and the Dominican Republic...4 to 8 inches with isolated 
maximum totals of 15 inches across southern terrain areas.  Heavy 
rainfall could lead to flash and urban flooding and possible 
mudslides from Monday into Tuesday.

By mid to late week, heavy rainfall from this system could impact 
portions of Cuba, the Bahamas and Florida.

SURF:  Swells generated by Grace will continue to affect portions 
of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico and will 
reach portions of Hispaniola tonight and Monday. These swells are 
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  
Please consult products from your local weather office.

 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch
 
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