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BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Grace Advisory Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072021
500 AM AST Sun Aug 15 2021
 
...GRACE REMAINS DISORGANIZED AS IT APPROACHES PUERTO RICO...
...HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE LESSER AND GREATER ANTILLES REMAINS THE
PRIMARY THREAT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.9N 64.4W
ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM SSE OF ST. CROIX
ABOUT 150 MI...245 KM SE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The government of the Dominican Republic has issued a Tropical
Storm Warning from Cabo Caucedo to the southern Haitian Border.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Saba and Sint Eustatius
* Sint Maarten
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra
* Dominican Republic from the southern Haitian border to Samana
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North coast of the Dominican Republic from the Haitian border to
Samana
* Entire coast of Haiti
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
Interests elsewhere in the Dominican Republic, Haiti, the Turks and
Caicos Islands, the southeastern Bahamas, and Cuba should monitor
the progress of Grace.  Additional watches and warnings could be
required for some of these areas later today.
 
For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Grace was
located near latitude 16.9 North, longitude 64.4 West. Grace is
moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A continued 
west-northwestward motion at a slower forward speed is expected 
over the next few days. 
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is expected before Grace reaches Hispaniola on 
Monday. Weakening is forecast as the system crosses Hispaniola 
Monday and Monday night. Little change in strength is expected on 
Tuesday. 
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC
and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages.
 
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area in the Leeward Islands this morning, in the Virgin Islands and
Puerto Rico today, and in the Dominican Republic tonight and Monday.
Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area in the
Dominican Republic Monday, and in Haiti on Monday night.
 
RAINFALL:  Grace is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts Sunday into Tuesday:
 
Over the northern Leeward Islands and Virgin Islands...3 to 6
inches. This rainfall may produce scattered areas of flash and urban
flooding.
 
Over Puerto Rico...3 to 6 inches with isolated maximum totals of 8
inches.  Heavy rainfall could lead to flash, urban and small stream
flooding and possible mudslides.
 
Over Haiti and the Dominican Republic ...4 to 7 inches with
isolated maximum totals of 10 inches. Heavy rainfall could lead to
flash and urban flooding and possible mudslides from Monday into
Tuesday.
 
By mid to late week, heavy rainfall from this system could impact
portions of Cuba, the Bahamas and Florida.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.
 
$$
Forecaster Latto
 
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