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BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Grace Advisory Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072021
1100 AM AST Sat Aug 14 2021
 
...GRACE A LITTLE STRONGER...
...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.2N 57.9W
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM ESE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The government of the Dominican Republic has issued a Tropical
Storm Watch for the south coast of the Dominican Republic from
Punta Caucedo eastward to Cabo Engano, and for the north coast from
Cabo Frances Viejo eastward to Cabo Engano.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Antigua and Barbuda, Anguilla, St. Kitts and Nevis, and Montserrat
* Saba and Sint Eustatius
* Sint Maarten
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
* British Virgin Islands
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* South coast of the Dominican Republic from Punta Caucedo to Cabo
Engano
* North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Frances Viejo to
Cabo Engano
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
Interests elsewhere in the Dominican Republic, Haiti, the Turks and
Caicos Islands, and the southeastern Bahamas should monitor the
progress of Grace.  Additional watches and warnings will likely be
required for this area later today and tonight.
 
For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Grace was
located near latitude 16.2 North, longitude 57.9 West.  Grace is
moving toward the west near 23 mph (37 km/h).  A motion toward the 
west-northwest with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected 
during the next several days.  On the forecast track, the center of 
Grace is expected to move over the Leeward Islands tonight, over 
the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Sunday, over the Dominican 
Republic on Monday, and then between the southeastern Bahamas and 
Cuba on Tuesday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or so.  Grace is 
likely to weaken while it moves near and across the Greater Antilles 
Sunday night through Monday night.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone 
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC 
and on the web at 
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages.
 
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area in the Leeward Islands by tonight or early Sunday, and in the
Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico beginning on Sunday.  Tropical storm
conditions are possible within the watch area in the Dominican
Republic Sunday night into Monday.
 
RAINFALL:  Grace is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts Saturday into Tuesday:
 
Over the northern Leeward Islands and Virgin Islands...3 to 6
inches. This rainfall may produce scattered areas of flash and urban
flooding.
 
Over Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic...3 to 6 inches with
isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. Heavy rainfall could lead to
flash, urban, and small stream flooding as well as potential
mudslides.
 
By mid to late next week heavy rainfall from this system could 
impact portions of Cuba, the Bahamas, and Florida.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.
 
$$
Forecaster Berg
 
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