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BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Seven Advisory Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072021
1100 PM AST Fri Aug 13 2021
 
...SMALL TROPICAL DEPRESSION CONTINUES MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 53.8W
ABOUT 540 MI...870 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Antigua and Barbuda, Anguilla, St. Kitts and Nevis, and Montserrat
* Saba and Sint Eustatius
* Sint Maarten
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* British Virgin Islands
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
Interests elsewhere in the Leeward Islands, as well as the
Dominican Republic, should monitor the progress of this system.
Additional watches and warnings will likely be required for these
areas tonight or on Saturday.
 
For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Seven
was located near latitude 15.5 North, longitude 53.8 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 21 mph (33 km/h). A 
motion towards the west or west-northwest with a gradual decrease 
in forward speed is expected during the next few days. On the
forecast track, the center of the depression is forecast to move
over the Leeward Islands Saturday night, over the Virgin Islands and
Puerto Rico on Sunday, and then over the Dominican Republic on
Monday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. 
Some strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and 
the depression is expected to become a tropical storm tomorrow.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Depression Seven can be found in
the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and
WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages.
 
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area over the Leeward Islands by Saturday night or early Sunday.
Tropical storm conditions are possible over the Virgin Islands and
Puerto Rico beginning on Sunday.
 
RAINFALL:  The system is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts Saturday into Monday:
 
Over the northern Leeward Islands and Virgin Islands...3 to 6
inches. This rainfall may produce scattered areas of flash and urban
flooding.
 
Over Puerto Rico...3 to 6 inches. Heavy rainfall could lead to
flash, urban, and small stream flooding as well as potential
mudslides.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.
 
$$
Forecaster Papin/Brown
 
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