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TROPICAL STORM GRACE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072021
0300 UTC WED AUG 18 2021
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG
THE NORTH COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CABO CATOCHE WESTWARD
TO DZILAM.  A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTH
AND WEST COASTS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM WEST OF DZILAM TO
CAMPECHE.
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF SANTIAGO DE CUBA.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM CANCUN TO PUNTA HERRERO... 
INCLUDING COZUMEL
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAYMAN ISLANDS
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA
* SOUTHERN COAST OF THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF GRANMA...LAS TUNAS...AND
CAMAGUEY
* CAYMAN ISLANDS
* YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM NORTH OF CANCUN TO DZILAM
* YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM SOUTH OF PUNTA HERRERO TO PUERTO
COSTA MAYA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN COAST OF THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI
SPIRITUS...CIENFUEGOS...MATANZAS...AND PINAR DEL RIO...AS WELL AS
ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD
* NORTH AND WEST COASTS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM WEST OF
DZILAM TO CAMPECHE
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GRACE.  ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY
BE REQUIRED EARLY WEDNESDAY.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N  79.2W AT 18/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT  12 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT.......100NE  90SE   0SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N  79.2W AT 18/0300Z
AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.3N  78.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 18.9N  81.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  30SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 19.5N  84.7W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  40SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 20.0N  87.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  80SE  30SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 20.4N  90.7W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  20SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE  40SE  30SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 20.7N  93.2W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE  70SE  40SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 20.8N  95.6W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE   0SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE  90SE  40SW  90NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 20.7N 100.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 20.5N 104.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.4N  79.2W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 18/0600Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 
 
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