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TROPICAL STORM GRACE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072021
0900 UTC SAT AUG 14 2021
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
AND PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING VIEQUES AND CULEBRA.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA...ANGUILLA...ST. KITTS AND NEVIS...AND
MONTSERRAT
* SABA AND SINT EUSTATIUS
* SINT MAARTEN
* ST. MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF 
THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED 
FOR THIS AREA LATER TODAY.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N  55.6W AT 14/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT  19 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N  55.6W AT 14/0900Z
AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.6N  54.7W
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 16.2N  58.5W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 16.9N  61.8W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 17.7N  64.8W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 18.3N  67.3W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 18.9N  69.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE   0SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 19.8N  71.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE   0SW  40NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 21.9N  75.6W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 24.5N  79.7W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N  55.6W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 14/1200Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER LATTO
 
 
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