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Tropical Depression Fred Intermediate Advisory Number 18A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062021
200 AM EDT Sat Aug 14 2021
 
...DISORGANIZED FRED CONTINUES TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS ACROSS 
CENTRAL CUBA...

 
SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.9N 81.0W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM SE OF VARADERO CUBA
ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM SSE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1013 MB...29.92 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Florida Keys west of the Seven Mile Bridge to the Dry Tortugas
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 hours.
 
Interests in Cuba and in the Florida peninsula and Florida
Panhandle should monitor the progress of Fred.  Watches could be
required for portions of the Florida panhandle later today.
 
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fred was 
located near latitude 22.9 North, longitude 81.0 West. The 
depression is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h).  A turn 
to the west-northwest is expected to occur later this morning, 
followed by a northwest motion by tonight. On the forecast track, 
Fred is expected to pass near or west of the lower Florida Keys this 
afternoon, move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico tonight and 
Sunday, and move inland over the northern Gulf coast on Monday.  
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Slow strengthening is forecast, and Fred could become a
tropical storm again by tonight.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1013 mb (29.92 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.
 
RAINFALL:  Tropical Depression Fred is expected to produce the 
following rainfall amounts:

Portions of Cuba...2 to 5 inches with isolated maximum totals of 8 
inches. This rainfall may lead to scattered flash flooding.

Across the Bahamas...1 to 3 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 
5 inches.

Through Monday, 3 to 5 inches of rain with local amounts of 8 inches 
is anticipated across the Keys and southern Florida.  Across the 
Florida Big Bend and Panhandle, 3 to 7 inches with isolated maximum 
totals of 10 inches are expected.  Heavy rainfall could lead to 
areal, urban, and small stream flooding impacts, and cause new minor 
flooding across the western Florida Peninsula and exacerbate ongoing 
minor to isolated moderate flooding in northern Florida.

From Monday onward, heavy rain and flood impacts could extend into 
inland portions of the Southeast and into the southern and central 
Appalachians and Piedmont as Fred interacts with a front in the 
area. 
 
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the
warning area across the Florida Keys later today.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Fred are expected to spread across the 
Florida Keys later this morning and reach the coast of Alabama 
and the Florida Panhandle on Monday.  Please consult products from  
your local weather office for more details.
 
TORNADOES: A tornado or two may be possible starting this
afternoon across portions of central and southern Florida.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
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Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
 
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