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BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fred Advisory Number  28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062021
1000 AM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021
 
...FRED EXPECTED TO BRING A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND HEAVY RAINS 
TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING EXTENDED EASTWARD TO STEINHATCHEE RIVER...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.2N 85.7W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM SW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The Tropical Storm Warning for the Florida Big Bend area is
extended eastward to the Steinhatchee River.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Coast of Florida from Indian Pass to Yankeetown
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Coast of the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend from Navarre to the
Steinhatchee River
 
A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline in 
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please 
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, 
available at hurricanes.gov.  This is a life-threatening situation. 
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary 
actions to protect life and property from rising water and the 
potential for other dangerous conditions.  Promptly follow 
evacuation and other instructions from local officials.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 hours.
 
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fred was
located near latitude 29.2 North, longitude 85.7 West.  Fred is
moving toward the north near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general
motion is expected through tonight.  On the forecast track, the
center of Fred should make landfall in the eastern Florida
Panhandle this afternoon or early this evening, and move over
western Georgia on Tuesday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. 
Some strengthening is possible before landfall. After landfall, 
Fred is expected to quickly weaken.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center. A National Ocean Service observation site at 
Apalachicola, Florida, recently reported a wind gust of 37 mph (59 
km/h). NOAA buoy 42039, located about 130 miles (215 km) 
south-southeast of Pensacola, Florida, recently reported a 
sustained wind of 56 mph (90 km/h). 
 
The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from an Air 
Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter Aircraft is 993 mb (29.32 inches).
  
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.
 
RAINFALL:
 
Fred is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts:
 
Through Monday...
 
Southern and Central Florida... 1 to 2 inches of additional rain
with isolated maximum storm totals of 5 inches are expected.
 
Through Tuesday...
 
The Florida Big Bend and Panhandle... 4 to 8 inches of rain with
isolated maximum storm totals of 12 inches are expected.
 
Southeast Alabama through western and northern Georgia, and the
western Carolinas... 4 to 7 inches of rain with isolated maximum
storm totals of 10 inches are expected.
 
Through Wednesday...
 
Portions of the Mid-Atlantic States... 2 to 4 inches of rain with
isolated maximum storm totals of 6 inches expected as Fred interacts
with a nearby front.
 
Heavy rainfall across portions of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic
States could lead to flash, urban, small stream and isolated river
flooding impacts.  An increased risk of landslides exists across the
mountains of North Carolina as well as portions of the Blue Ridge
Escarpment on Tuesday.
 
STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
 
Indian Pass, FL to Steinhatchee River, FL...3-5 ft
Steinhatchee River, FL to Yankeetown, FL...2-4 ft
AL/FL border to Indian Pass including Pensacola Bay, Choctawhatchee
Bay and Saint Andrew Bay...1-3 ft
Yankeetown, FL to Aripeka, FL...1-3 ft
 
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large waves.  Surge-related flooding depends on the
relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary
greatly over short distances.  For information specific to your
area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.
 
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions have begun to occur in portions of
the Tropical Storm warning area.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Fred are affecting the coasts of 
Mississippi, Alabama and the Florida Panhandle, and could
causing life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please
consult products from your local weather office for more details.
 
TORNADOES:  A few tornadoes are possible today and tonight across
parts of the Florida Panhandle, southwest Georgia, and southeast
Alabama.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch
 
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