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Tropical Depression Fred Advisory Number  15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062021
500 AM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021
 
...FRED CONTINUES TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS ACROSS EASTERN CUBA...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...22.0N 76.7W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM SSW OF GREAT EXUMA ISLAND
ABOUT 370 MI...595 KM ESE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1013 MB...29.92 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The Tropical Storm Watch for the Florida Keys and Florida Bay has
been upgraded to a Tropical Storm Warning.
 
The Tropical Storm Watch has been extended northward from Bonita
Beach to Englewood, Florida.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Florida Keys west of Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas
* Florida Bay
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Camaguey, Las Tunas,
Holguin, and Granma
* The southwest coast of Florida from Englewood south and east to
Ocean Reef
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.
 
Interests in the Bahamas and elsewhere in Cuba and the Florida
Peninsula should monitor the progress of Fred.  Additional watches
and warnings will likely be required for portions of these areas
later today.
 
For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fred was
located near latitude 22.0 North, longitude 76.7 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h)
and this general motion is expected to continue today. A turn
toward the northwest is expected tonight or Saturday.  On the
forecast track, Fred is expected to move along or just north of
eastern and central Cuba through tonight, be near the Florida
Keys on Saturday, and near the west coast of Florida on Sunday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slow strengthening is expected during the next couple of days, and 
Fred could become a tropical storm again later today.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1013 mb (29.92 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.
 
RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Fred is expected to produce the
following rainfall amounts:
 
Over Cuba and the eastern Bahamas...1 to 3 inches with isolated
maximum totals of 5 inches.
 
Across the western Bahamas...3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum
totals of 8 inches.
 
From today into Monday, 3 to 7 inches of rain is anticipated across
the Keys, southern and central Florida north towards the Big Bend,
with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches. Heavy rainfall could lead
to areal, urban, and small stream flooding, and potentially worsen
ongoing minor to isolated moderate river flooding over northern
Florida.
 
From Sunday onward, heavy rain and flood impacts could extend into
inland portions of the Southeast and into the southern and central
Appalachians and Piedmont as Fred interacts with a front in the
area.
 
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in
Cuba through tonight.  Tropical storm conditions are expected
across the Florida Keys, in the warning area, on Saturday.
Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in
Florida beginning Saturday.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Fred are expected to spread across
portions of the Bahamas and the northern coast of Cuba through
tonight. These swells could reach the Florida Keys and southern
Florida by early Saturday and increase along the west coast of
Florida Saturday night and Sunday.  Please consult products from
your local weather office for more details.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
 
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