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TROPICAL STORM FRED FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062021
2100 UTC WED AUG 11 2021
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ON THE SOUTH COAST FROM PUNTA PALENQUE
EASTWARD AND ON THE NORTH COAST FROM THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER EASTWARD
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAITI FROM THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO
GONAIVES
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS
TUNAS...HOLGUIN...GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN HAITI...THE BAHAMAS...CUBA...AND THE SOUTHERN
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF FRED.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N  71.0W AT 11/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT  13 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N  71.0W AT 11/2100Z...INLAND
AT 11/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5N  70.4W...INLAND
 
FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 19.8N  72.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 20.9N  75.0W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 21.9N  77.1W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE   0SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 22.9N  79.2W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE   0SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 23.9N  80.6W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  30SE   0SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 25.3N  82.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  30SE   0SW  50NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 28.5N  84.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 31.0N  85.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.9N  71.0W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 12/0000Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
 
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