ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
Tropical Depression Fred Discussion Number  31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062021
400 AM CDT Tue Aug 17 2021
 
Fred has moved farther inland and is now located near the border of 
southwestern Georgia and southeastern Alabama. Between 0400-0600 
UTC, Doppler radar data from Tallahassee, Florida, still showed 
68-70 kt velocities between 9,000-10,000 ft associated with a solid 
band of convection in the northeastern quadrant. Using 50 percent of 
those values supported keeping Fred as a 35-kt tropical storm at 
0600 UTC. This intensity was also supported by 30-kt winds on the 
west side of the low-level circulation noted in surface 
observations. Since that time, however, the solid band of convection 
has become fragmented and the thunderstorm activity has broken up 
into more discrete cells. Satellite and radar imagery also indicate 
that the mid- and upper-level circulations have decoupled and 
sheared out to the north of the low-level circulation. As a result, 
Fred has been downgraded to a tropical depression at the 0900 UTC 
advisory time. Weakening will continue through today as Fred moves 
farther inland over Georgia and into the southern Appalachians, with 
Fred likely becoming a remnant low later tonight before merging with 
a frontal system over the northern Appalachians on Wednesday.
 
Fred has continued to move north-northeastward, or 015/12 kt. For 
the remainder of today, Fred should maintain a motion toward the 
north-northeast or northeast accompanied by a gradual increase 
forward speed owing to a very stable steering pattern between a 
deep-layer ridge to the east and a broad mid-tropospheric trough
to the west. The new NHC track forecast is essentially just an 
update of the previous advisory track and lies near the middle of 
the tightly packed NHC model guidance suite.
 
Although Fred is weakening, the system is still expected to bring 
flooding rains to portions of the southeastern and eastern United 
States during the next couple of days.

This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center 
on Fred. Future information on this system can be found in Public 
Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning at 11 
AM ED, under AWIPS header TCPAT1, WMO header WTNT31 KWNH, and on the 
web at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov. 
 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1. Through Tuesday, heavy rainfall may lead to considerable flash,
urban, small stream, and isolated river flooding impacts across
portions of the Florida Panhandle, southeastern Alabama, and from
western Georgia into the southern Appalachians. By the middle of
the week,  Fred or its remnants will lift northward and impact the
central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic. Landslides are possible
across the mountains of North Carolina and Blue Ridge Escarpment 
on Tuesday.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  17/0900Z 32.3N  85.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 12H  17/1800Z 34.2N  84.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 24H  18/0600Z 37.0N  82.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 36H  18/1800Z 39.6N  80.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 48H  19/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Stewart
 
NNNN