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Tropical Storm ELSA (Text)


ZCZC MIAPWSAT5 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM ELSA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  29             
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052021               
0900 UTC WED JUL 07 2021                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ELSA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
28.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H.                                         
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
CAPE RACE NFLD 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)
 
ILE ST PIERRE  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  10(11)   X(11)
 
BURGEO NFLD    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  17(19)   X(19)
 
PTX BASQUES    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  19(23)   X(23)
PTX BASQUES    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)
 
EDDY POINT NS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)   6(15)   X(15)
 
SYDNEY NS      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)  14(22)   X(22)
SYDNEY NS      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)
 
SABLE ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)
 
HALIFAX NS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  22(22)   3(25)   X(25)
HALIFAX NS     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
YARMOUTH NS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  28(28)   2(30)   X(30)
YARMOUTH NS    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)
 
MONCTON NB     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  14(14)   3(17)   X(17)
 
ST JOHN NB     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  17(17)   2(19)   X(19)
 
EASTPORT ME    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  18(18)   1(19)   X(19)
EASTPORT ME    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
BAR HARBOR ME  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)   1(11)   X(11)
 
AUGUSTA ME     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
PORTLAND ME    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
CONCORD NH     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
PORTSMOUTH NH  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
WORCESTER MA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
SPRINGFIELD MA 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
BOSTON MA      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
HYANNIS MA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  19(20)   X(20)   X(20)
HYANNIS MA     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
NANTUCKET MA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  32(33)   X(33)   X(33)
NANTUCKET MA   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
NANTUCKET MA   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
PROVIDENCE RI  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  22(23)   X(23)   X(23)
PROVIDENCE RI  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
BRIDGEPORT CT  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   7( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
NEW HAVEN CT   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   7( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
HARTFORD CT    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
NEW LONDON CT  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  14(15)   X(15)   X(15)
 
POUGHKEEPSIE   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
MONTAUK POINT  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  25(27)   X(27)   X(27)
MONTAUK POINT  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
ISLIP NY       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  11(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 
NYC JFK AIRPRT 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  14(19)   X(19)   X(19)
NYC JFK AIRPRT 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
NYC CNTRL PARK 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
NEWARK NJ      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
TRENTON NJ     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   3( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
NWS EARLE NJ   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   7(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
ALLENTOWN PA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
PHILADELPHIA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   4(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
ATLANTIC CITY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)   9(20)   X(20)   X(20)
 
BALTIMORE MD   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   2(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
DOVER DE       34  X   X( X)   X( X)  16(16)   5(21)   X(21)   X(21)
DOVER DE       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
ANNAPOLIS MD   34  X   X( X)   X( X)  13(13)   1(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 
WASHINGTON DC  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)  10(11)   1(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
CAPE HENLOPEN  34  X   X( X)   X( X)  29(29)   9(38)   X(38)   X(38)
CAPE HENLOPEN  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
CAPE HENLOPEN  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
OCEAN CITY MD  34  X   X( X)   X( X)  37(37)   7(44)   X(44)   X(44)
OCEAN CITY MD  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)   3(12)   X(12)   X(12)
OCEAN CITY MD  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
PAX RIVER NAS  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)  23(24)   2(26)   X(26)   X(26)
PAX RIVER NAS  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
WALLOPS CDA    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)  39(40)   4(44)   X(44)   X(44)
WALLOPS CDA    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)   3(12)   X(12)   X(12)
WALLOPS CDA    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
CHARLOTTESVIL  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
RICHMOND VA    34  X   X( X)   2( 2)  24(26)   X(26)   X(26)   X(26)
RICHMOND VA    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
DANVILLE VA    34  X   X( X)   7( 7)   5(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
NORFOLK NAS    34  X   X( X)   2( 2)  38(40)   1(41)   X(41)   X(41)
NORFOLK NAS    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
NORFOLK NAS    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
NORFOLK VA     34  X   X( X)   2( 2)  38(40)   1(41)   X(41)   X(41)
NORFOLK VA     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
NORFOLK VA     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
OCEANA NAS VA  34  X   X( X)   2( 2)  40(42)   1(43)   X(43)   X(43)
OCEANA NAS VA  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)   1(10)   X(10)   X(10)
OCEANA NAS VA  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
ELIZABETH CTY  34  X   X( X)   3( 3)  32(35)   X(35)   X(35)   X(35)
ELIZABETH CTY  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
GREENSBORO NC  34  X   1( 1)   8( 9)   3(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
RALEIGH NC     34  X   1( 1)  14(15)   9(24)   X(24)   X(24)   X(24)
RALEIGH NC     50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
ROCKY MT NC    34  X   X( X)  10(10)  24(34)   X(34)   X(34)   X(34)
ROCKY MT NC    50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
CAPE HATTERAS  34  X   X( X)   2( 2)  10(12)   1(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 
FAYETTEVILLE   34  X   1( 1)  24(25)   5(30)   X(30)   X(30)   X(30)
FAYETTEVILLE   50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
CHARLOTTE NC   34  X   2( 2)   9(11)   1(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
CHERRY PT NC   34  X   X( X)   5( 5)  10(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)
 
NEW RIVER NC   34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   8(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
MOREHEAD CITY  34  X   X( X)   4( 4)   7(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
SURF CITY NC   34  X   1( 1)   7( 8)   5(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 
WILMINGTON NC  34  X   1( 1)   9(10)   4(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 
BALD HEAD ISL  34  X   1( 1)   8( 9)   2(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
FLORENCE SC    34  X   4( 4)  28(32)   1(33)   X(33)   X(33)   X(33)
FLORENCE SC    50  X   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
COLUMBIA SC    34  1   9(10)  20(30)   X(30)   X(30)   X(30)   X(30)
 
LITTLE RIVER   34  X   2( 2)  14(16)   1(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)
 
MYRTLE BEACH   34  X   3( 3)  15(18)   1(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)
 
GEORGETOWN SC  34  1   3( 4)  16(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)
 
CHARLESTON SC  34  1   9(10)  15(25)   1(26)   X(26)   X(26)   X(26)
 
BEAUFORT MCAS  34  2  24(26)  10(36)   X(36)   X(36)   X(36)   X(36)
BEAUFORT MCAS  50  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
AUGUSTA GA     34  1  23(24)   5(29)   X(29)   X(29)   X(29)   X(29)
AUGUSTA GA     50  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
SAVANNAH GA    34  3  40(43)   3(46)   X(46)   X(46)   X(46)   X(46)
SAVANNAH GA    50  X   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
KINGS BAY GA   34 10  26(36)   X(36)   X(36)   X(36)   X(36)   X(36)
 
WAYCROSS GA    34 25  57(82)   X(82)   X(82)   X(82)   X(82)   X(82)
WAYCROSS GA    50  1  11(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
MAYPORT NS FL  34 10  15(25)   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)
 
JACKSONVILLE   34 19  22(41)   X(41)   X(41)   X(41)   X(41)   X(41)
 
GAINESVILLE FL 34 72   3(75)   X(75)   X(75)   X(75)   X(75)   X(75)
GAINESVILLE FL 50  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
DAYTONA BEACH  34  4   2( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
THE VILLAGES   34 19   2(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)
 
ORLANDO FL     34  3   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
COCOA BEACH FL 34  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
PATRICK AFB    34  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
TAMPA FL       34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
CEDAR KEY FL   34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
CEDAR KEY FL   50 49   X(49)   X(49)   X(49)   X(49)   X(49)   X(49)
 
TALLAHASSEE FL 34 22   1(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)
 
ST MARKS FL    34 30   X(30)   X(30)   X(30)   X(30)   X(30)   X(30)
ST MARKS FL    50  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
APALACHICOLA   34  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BEVEN                                                    
NNNN                                                                

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Page last modified: Monday, 29-Nov-2021 12:09:10 UTC