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Tropical Storm ELSA (Text)


ZCZC MIAPWSAT5 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM ELSA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  25             
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052021               
1500 UTC TUE JUL 06 2021                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ELSA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
24.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H.                                          
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
ILE ST PIERRE  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)
 
BURGEO NFLD    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   X( 8)
 
PTX BASQUES    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)   X(11)
 
EDDY POINT NS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)   X( 9)
 
SYDNEY NS      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  12(12)   X(12)
 
SABLE ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)   X( 9)
 
HALIFAX NS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  14(14)   X(14)
 
YARMOUTH NS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  14(14)   X(14)
YARMOUTH NS    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)
 
MONCTON NB     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   X( 8)
 
ST JOHN NB     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   X( 8)
 
EASTPORT ME    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   X( 8)
 
BAR HARBOR ME  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)
 
AUGUSTA ME     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)
 
PORTLAND ME    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)
 
PORTSMOUTH NH  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
WORCESTER MA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
SPRINGFIELD MA 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
BOSTON MA      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
HYANNIS MA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   X( 6)
 
NANTUCKET MA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   8(14)   X(14)
 
PROVIDENCE RI  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   4( 9)   X( 9)
 
BRIDGEPORT CT  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
NEW HAVEN CT   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
HARTFORD CT    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
NEW LONDON CT  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)
 
MONTAUK POINT  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   4(11)   X(11)
 
ISLIP NY       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)
 
NYC JFK AIRPRT 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)
 
NYC CNTRL PARK 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
NEWARK NJ      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
TRENTON NJ     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
NWS EARLE NJ   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
PHILADELPHIA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
ATLANTIC CITY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
BALTIMORE MD   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
DOVER DE       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
ANNAPOLIS MD   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
WASHINGTON DC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
CAPE HENLOPEN  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  18(18)   X(18)   X(18)
CAPE HENLOPEN  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
OCEAN CITY MD  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  22(22)   X(22)   X(22)
OCEAN CITY MD  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
PAX RIVER NAS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
WALLOPS CDA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  23(23)   X(23)   X(23)
WALLOPS CDA    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
CHARLOTTESVIL  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
RICHMOND VA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  10(11)   1(12)   X(12)
 
DANVILLE VA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
NORFOLK NAS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  21(22)   X(22)   X(22)
NORFOLK NAS    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
NORFOLK VA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  21(22)   1(23)   X(23)
NORFOLK VA     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
OCEANA NAS VA  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  28(29)   X(29)   X(29)
OCEANA NAS VA  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
OCEANA NAS VA  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
ELIZABETH CTY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  24(25)   X(25)   X(25)
ELIZABETH CTY  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
ELIZABETH CTY  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
GREENSBORO NC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
RALEIGH NC     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  10(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
ROCKY MT NC    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  17(19)   X(19)   X(19)
ROCKY MT NC    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
CAPE HATTERAS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  23(24)   X(24)   X(24)
CAPE HATTERAS  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
CAPE HATTERAS  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
FAYETTEVILLE   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)  10(17)   X(17)   X(17)
FAYETTEVILLE   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
CHARLOTTE NC   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
CHERRY PT NC   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  22(24)   X(24)   X(24)
CHERRY PT NC   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
NEW RIVER NC   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  19(22)   X(22)   X(22)
NEW RIVER NC   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
NEW RIVER NC   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
MOREHEAD CITY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  19(23)   X(23)   X(23)
MOREHEAD CITY  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
MOREHEAD CITY  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
SURF CITY NC   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)  18(24)   X(24)   X(24)
SURF CITY NC   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
WILMINGTON NC  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)  16(22)   X(22)   X(22)
WILMINGTON NC  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
BALD HEAD ISL  34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   9(11)  11(22)   X(22)   X(22)
BALD HEAD ISL  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
BALD HEAD ISL  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
FLORENCE SC    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)  11(12)   5(17)   X(17)   X(17)
 
COLUMBIA SC    34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   7( 9)   1(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
LITTLE RIVER   34  X   X( X)   2( 2)  13(15)  10(25)   X(25)   X(25)
LITTLE RIVER   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
LITTLE RIVER   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
MYRTLE BEACH   34  X   X( X)   2( 2)  16(18)   7(25)   X(25)   X(25)
MYRTLE BEACH   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
MYRTLE BEACH   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
GEORGETOWN SC  34  X   X( X)   2( 2)  17(19)   5(24)   X(24)   X(24)
GEORGETOWN SC  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
CHARLESTON SC  34  X   1( 1)   7( 8)  20(28)   2(30)   X(30)   X(30)
CHARLESTON SC  50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
CHARLESTON SC  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
BEAUFORT MCAS  34  X   3( 3)  14(17)  16(33)   X(33)   X(33)   X(33)
BEAUFORT MCAS  50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
AUGUSTA GA     34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   3( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
SAVANNAH GA    34  X   2( 2)  18(20)  10(30)   X(30)   X(30)   X(30)
SAVANNAH GA    50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
KINGS BAY GA   34  1   7( 8)  35(43)   3(46)   X(46)   X(46)   X(46)
KINGS BAY GA   50  X   X( X)   8( 8)   2(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
KINGS BAY GA   64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
WAYCROSS GA    34  X   4( 4)  30(34)   2(36)   X(36)   X(36)   X(36)
WAYCROSS GA    50  X   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
MAYPORT NS FL  34  2   8(10)  31(41)   2(43)   X(43)   X(43)   X(43)
MAYPORT NS FL  50  X   X( X)   7( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
MAYPORT NS FL  64  X   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
JACKSONVILLE   34  X   7( 7)  39(46)   2(48)   X(48)   X(48)   X(48)
JACKSONVILLE   50  X   X( X)   7( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
GAINESVILLE FL 34  X  38(38)  29(67)   X(67)   X(67)   X(67)   X(67)
GAINESVILLE FL 50  X   3( 3)  13(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)
GAINESVILLE FL 64  X   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
DAYTONA BEACH  34  X   9( 9)  16(25)   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)
 
THE VILLAGES   34  1  41(42)  14(56)   X(56)   X(56)   X(56)   X(56)
THE VILLAGES   50  X   3( 3)   3( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
ORLANDO FL     34  1  13(14)   8(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)
 
COCOA BEACH FL 34  3   6( 9)   3(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
PATRICK AFB    34  3   6( 9)   3(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
FT PIERCE FL   34  3   4( 7)   1( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
W PALM BEACH   34  3   3( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
FT LAUDERDALE  34  3   2( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
MIAMI FL       34  1   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
MARATHON FL    34  3   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
KEY WEST FL    34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
NAPLES FL      34 56   2(58)   X(58)   X(58)   X(58)   X(58)   X(58)
 
FT MYERS FL    34 41   3(44)   X(44)   X(44)   X(44)   X(44)   X(44)
 
VENICE FL      34 83  11(94)   X(94)   X(94)   X(94)   X(94)   X(94)
VENICE FL      50 14  20(34)   X(34)   X(34)   X(34)   X(34)   X(34)
VENICE FL      64  1   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
TAMPA FL       34 20  67(87)   1(88)   X(88)   X(88)   X(88)   X(88)
TAMPA FL       50  1  28(29)   X(29)   X(29)   X(29)   X(29)   X(29)
TAMPA FL       64  X   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
CEDAR KEY FL   34  3  68(71)   4(75)   X(75)   X(75)   X(75)   X(75)
CEDAR KEY FL   50  X  28(28)   5(33)   X(33)   X(33)   X(33)   X(33)
CEDAR KEY FL   64  X   5( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
TALLAHASSEE FL 34  X   4( 4)   4( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
ST MARKS FL    34  X   7( 7)   6(13)   1(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 
APALACHICOLA   34  1   7( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
GFMX 290N 850W 34  1   7( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
PANAMA CITY FL 34  1   3( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
GRAND BAHAMA   34  2   2( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PASCH                                                    
NNNN                                                                

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Page last modified: Tuesday, 07-Dec-2021 12:09:10 UTC