| HOME | ARCHIVES | FORECASTS | IMAGERY | ABOUT NHC | RECONNAISSANCE |

Tropical Storm ELSA (Text)


ZCZC MIAPWSAT5 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM ELSA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  23             
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052021               
0300 UTC TUE JUL 06 2021                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ELSA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
23.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H.                                          
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
HIBERNIA OILFD 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
CAPE RACE NFLD 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)
 
ILE ST PIERRE  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  12(12)
ILE ST PIERRE  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
BURGEO NFLD    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  13(13)
BURGEO NFLD    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
PTX BASQUES    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  12(12)
 
EDDY POINT NS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)
 
SYDNEY NS      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  11(12)
SYDNEY NS      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
SABLE ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)
 
HALIFAX NS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   7(11)
 
YARMOUTH NS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   3( 9)
 
MONCTON NB     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
ST JOHN NB     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
EASTPORT ME    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
WORCESTER MA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)
 
BOSTON MA      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)
 
HYANNIS MA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)
 
NANTUCKET MA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)   X(10)
 
PROVIDENCE RI  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   1( 7)
 
BRIDGEPORT CT  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)
 
NEW HAVEN CT   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)
 
HARTFORD CT    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)
 
NEW LONDON CT  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)
 
MONTAUK POINT  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   X( 8)
 
ISLIP NY       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)
 
NYC JFK AIRPRT 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)
 
NYC CNTRL PARK 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
NEWARK NJ      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
TRENTON NJ     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)
 
NWS EARLE NJ   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)
 
PHILADELPHIA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
ATLANTIC CITY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   X( 6)
 
BALTIMORE MD   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
DOVER DE       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)
 
ANNAPOLIS MD   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
WASHINGTON DC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
CAPE HENLOPEN  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   4(12)   X(12)
 
OCEAN CITY MD  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)   4(15)   X(15)
OCEAN CITY MD  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
PAX RIVER NAS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)
 
WALLOPS CDA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  13(13)   3(16)   X(16)
WALLOPS CDA    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
RICHMOND VA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)
 
DANVILLE VA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
NORFOLK NAS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  12(12)   1(13)   X(13)
 
NORFOLK VA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  12(12)   2(14)   X(14)
 
OCEANA NAS VA  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  18(18)   1(19)   X(19)
OCEANA NAS VA  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
ELIZABETH CTY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  15(15)   1(16)   X(16)
ELIZABETH CTY  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
GREENSBORO NC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
RALEIGH NC     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
ROCKY MT NC    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  12(12)   1(13)   X(13)
 
CAPE HATTERAS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  18(18)   1(19)   X(19)
CAPE HATTERAS  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
FAYETTEVILLE   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  11(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
CHARLOTTE NC   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
CHERRY PT NC   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  16(16)   X(16)   X(16)
 
NEW RIVER NC   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  17(17)   1(18)   X(18)
NEW RIVER NC   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
MOREHEAD CITY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  18(18)   X(18)   X(18)
MOREHEAD CITY  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
SURF CITY NC   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  17(18)   X(18)   X(18)
SURF CITY NC   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
WILMINGTON NC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  14(15)   X(15)   X(15)
 
BALD HEAD ISL  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  15(17)   X(17)   X(17)
BALD HEAD ISL  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
FLORENCE SC    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  12(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 
COLUMBIA SC    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   8(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
LITTLE RIVER   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  17(19)   X(19)   X(19)
LITTLE RIVER   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
MYRTLE BEACH   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  16(19)   X(19)   X(19)
MYRTLE BEACH   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
GEORGETOWN SC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  13(16)   X(16)   X(16)
 
CHARLESTON SC  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)  15(23)   X(23)   X(23)
CHARLESTON SC  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
BEAUFORT MCAS  34  X   X( X)   3( 3)  12(15)   9(24)   X(24)   X(24)
BEAUFORT MCAS  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
AUGUSTA GA     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   4( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
SAVANNAH GA    34  X   X( X)   2( 2)  14(16)   5(21)   X(21)   X(21)
SAVANNAH GA    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
KINGS BAY GA   34  X   2( 2)   9(11)  21(32)   2(34)   X(34)   X(34)
KINGS BAY GA   50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
WAYCROSS GA    34  X   X( X)   6( 6)  22(28)   X(28)   X(28)   X(28)
WAYCROSS GA    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
MAYPORT NS FL  34  X   2( 2)  11(13)  17(30)   2(32)   X(32)   X(32)
MAYPORT NS FL  50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
MAYPORT NS FL  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
JACKSONVILLE   34  X   1( 1)   9(10)  21(31)   2(33)   X(33)   X(33)
JACKSONVILLE   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
GAINESVILLE FL 34  X   1( 1)  32(33)  15(48)   X(48)   X(48)   X(48)
GAINESVILLE FL 50  X   X( X)   4( 4)   6(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
GAINESVILLE FL 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
DAYTONA BEACH  34  X   1( 1)   9(10)   7(17)   1(18)   X(18)   X(18)
 
THE VILLAGES   34  X   2( 2)  27(29)   8(37)   1(38)   X(38)   X(38)
THE VILLAGES   50  X   X( X)   4( 4)   3( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
ORLANDO FL     34  X   3( 3)  10(13)   4(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)
 
COCOA BEACH FL 34  1   4( 5)   5(10)   1(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
PATRICK AFB    34  1   4( 5)   5(10)   1(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
FT PIERCE FL   34  2   3( 5)   3( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
W PALM BEACH   34  2   2( 4)   2( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
FT LAUDERDALE  34  2   2( 4)   2( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
MIAMI FL       34  1   1( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
MARATHON FL    34  7   2( 9)   1(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
KEY WEST FL    34 77   X(77)   1(78)   X(78)   X(78)   X(78)   X(78)
KEY WEST FL    50  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
NAPLES FL      34 14  26(40)   2(42)   X(42)   X(42)   X(42)   X(42)
NAPLES FL      50  X   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
FT MYERS FL    34  2  19(21)   2(23)   1(24)   X(24)   X(24)   X(24)
 
VENICE FL      34  3  65(68)   7(75)   X(75)   X(75)   X(75)   X(75)
VENICE FL      50  X  16(16)   7(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)
VENICE FL      64  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
TAMPA FL       34  2  37(39)  30(69)   X(69)   X(69)   X(69)   X(69)
TAMPA FL       50  X   3( 3)  17(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)
TAMPA FL       64  X   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
CEDAR KEY FL   34  1   9(10)  50(60)   2(62)   1(63)   X(63)   X(63)
CEDAR KEY FL   50  X   1( 1)  19(20)   3(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)
CEDAR KEY FL   64  X   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
TALLAHASSEE FL 34  X   1( 1)   6( 7)   7(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 
ST MARKS FL    34  X   1( 1)  11(12)   7(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)
ST MARKS FL    50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
APALACHICOLA   34  X   2( 2)   9(11)   2(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 
GFMX 290N 850W 34  1   2( 3)  11(14)   1(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)
 
PANAMA CITY FL 34  X   1( 1)   4( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
GFMX 290N 870W 34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
GRAND BAHAMA   34  1   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
HAVANA         34  2   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER STEWART                                                  
NNNN                                                                

Standard version of this page

Alternate Formats
About Alternates - E-Mail Advisories - RSS Feeds

Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory - Past Advisories - About Advisories

Marine Forecasts
Latest Products - About Marine Products

Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery - US Weather Radar - Aircraft Recon - Local Data Archive - Forecast Verification - Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense

Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names Wind Scale - Prepare - Climatology - NHC Glossary - NHC Acronyms - Frequently Asked Questions - AOML Hurricane-Research Division

About Us
About NHC - Mission/Vision - Other NCEP Centers - NHC Staff - Visitor Information - NHC Library

Contact Us


NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Tuesday, 07-Dec-2021 12:09:10 UTC