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Tropical Storm ELSA (Text)


ZCZC MIAPWSAT5 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM ELSA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  22             
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052021               
2100 UTC MON JUL 05 2021                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ELSA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
22.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.                                          
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
CAPE RACE NFLD 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)
 
ILE ST PIERRE  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)
 
BURGEO NFLD    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  13(13)
BURGEO NFLD    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
PTX BASQUES    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  13(13)
PTX BASQUES    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
EDDY POINT NS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)
 
SYDNEY NS      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  14(14)
SYDNEY NS      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
SABLE ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)
 
HALIFAX NS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  10(11)
 
YARMOUTH NS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   9(11)
 
MONCTON NB     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)
 
ST JOHN NB     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)
 
EASTPORT ME    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)
 
BAR HARBOR ME  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
WORCESTER MA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
BOSTON MA      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
HYANNIS MA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)
 
NANTUCKET MA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)   2(11)
 
PROVIDENCE RI  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   1( 6)
 
BRIDGEPORT CT  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)
 
NEW HAVEN CT   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)
 
HARTFORD CT    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)
 
NEW LONDON CT  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)
 
MONTAUK POINT  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   1( 7)
 
ISLIP NY       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)
 
NYC JFK AIRPRT 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)
 
NYC CNTRL PARK 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)
 
NEWARK NJ      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)
 
TRENTON NJ     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)
 
NWS EARLE NJ   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)
 
PHILADELPHIA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
ATLANTIC CITY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)
 
BALTIMORE MD   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
DOVER DE       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)
 
ANNAPOLIS MD   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)
 
WASHINGTON DC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)
 
CAPE HENLOPEN  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)   X( 8)
 
OCEAN CITY MD  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   7( 9)   1(10)
 
PAX RIVER NAS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   X( 6)
 
WALLOPS CDA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   7(10)   X(10)
 
CHARLOTTESVIL  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
RICHMOND VA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)   X( 7)
 
DANVILLE VA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
NORFOLK NAS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   5( 9)   X( 9)
 
NORFOLK VA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   5( 9)   X( 9)
 
OCEANA NAS VA  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   6(11)   X(11)
 
ELIZABETH CTY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   4(10)   X(10)
 
GREENSBORO NC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
 
RALEIGH NC     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)
 
ROCKY MT NC    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   2(10)   X(10)
 
CAPE HATTERAS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   4(11)   X(11)
 
FAYETTEVILLE   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)   1(10)   X(10)
 
CHARLOTTE NC   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
CHERRY PT NC   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)   2(11)   X(11)
 
NEW RIVER NC   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)   2(12)   X(12)
NEW RIVER NC   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
MOREHEAD CITY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)   2(12)   X(12)
MOREHEAD CITY  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
SURF CITY NC   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  13(13)   1(14)   X(14)
SURF CITY NC   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
WILMINGTON NC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)   2(12)   X(12)
 
BALD HEAD ISL  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  14(14)   1(15)   X(15)
BALD HEAD ISL  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
FLORENCE SC    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)   1(11)   X(11)
 
COLUMBIA SC    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   8(10)   1(11)   X(11)
 
LITTLE RIVER   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  15(15)   1(16)   X(16)
 
MYRTLE BEACH   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  15(16)   1(17)   X(17)
 
GEORGETOWN SC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  13(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 
CHARLESTON SC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  14(18)   X(18)   X(18)
CHARLESTON SC  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
BEAUFORT MCAS  34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)  16(21)   X(21)   X(21)
BEAUFORT MCAS  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
AUGUSTA GA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   9(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
SAVANNAH GA    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)  14(21)   X(21)   X(21)
SAVANNAH GA    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
KINGS BAY GA   34  X   X( X)   6( 6)  17(23)   7(30)   X(30)   X(30)
KINGS BAY GA   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
WAYCROSS GA    34  X   X( X)   2( 2)  20(22)   7(29)   X(29)   X(29)
WAYCROSS GA    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
MAYPORT NS FL  34  X   1( 1)   7( 8)  14(22)   5(27)   X(27)   X(27)
MAYPORT NS FL  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
JACKSONVILLE   34  X   X( X)   3( 3)  20(23)   5(28)   X(28)   X(28)
JACKSONVILLE   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
GAINESVILLE FL 34  X   1( 1)   9(10)  28(38)   3(41)   X(41)   X(41)
GAINESVILLE FL 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
GAINESVILLE FL 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
DAYTONA BEACH  34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)  10(14)   2(16)   X(16)   X(16)
 
THE VILLAGES   34  X   1( 1)  13(14)  17(31)   1(32)   X(32)   X(32)
THE VILLAGES   50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
ORLANDO FL     34  X   1( 1)   6( 7)   7(14)   2(16)   X(16)   X(16)
 
COCOA BEACH FL 34  1   3( 4)   7(11)   2(13)   1(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 
PATRICK AFB    34  1   3( 4)   7(11)   2(13)   1(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 
FT PIERCE FL   34  1   3( 4)   5( 9)   1(10)   1(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
W PALM BEACH   34  1   4( 5)   3( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
FT LAUDERDALE  34  1   3( 4)   3( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
MIAMI FL       34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
HOMESTEAD ARB  34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
MARATHON FL    34  9   5(14)   1(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)
 
KEY WEST FL    34 54   8(62)   1(63)   X(63)   X(63)   X(63)   X(63)
KEY WEST FL    50  6   4(10)   1(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
NAPLES FL      34  2  34(36)   4(40)   X(40)   X(40)   X(40)   X(40)
NAPLES FL      50  X   4( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
FT MYERS FL    34  X  15(15)   5(20)   1(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)
 
VENICE FL      34  1  41(42)  25(67)   1(68)   X(68)   X(68)   X(68)
VENICE FL      50  X   5( 5)  16(21)   1(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)
VENICE FL      64  X   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
TAMPA FL       34  1  13(14)  47(61)   3(64)   X(64)   X(64)   X(64)
TAMPA FL       50  X   1( 1)  15(16)   2(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)
TAMPA FL       64  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
CEDAR KEY FL   34  X   4( 4)  45(49)  13(62)   X(62)   X(62)   X(62)
CEDAR KEY FL   50  X   X( X)  12(12)  10(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)
CEDAR KEY FL   64  X   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
TALLAHASSEE FL 34  X   X( X)   3( 3)  16(19)   2(21)   X(21)   X(21)
TALLAHASSEE FL 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
ST MARKS FL    34  X   1( 1)   5( 6)  18(24)   2(26)   X(26)   X(26)
ST MARKS FL    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
ST MARKS FL    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
APALACHICOLA   34  X   2( 2)  11(13)   7(20)   1(21)   X(21)   X(21)
APALACHICOLA   50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
GFMX 290N 850W 34  X   3( 3)  19(22)   4(26)   1(27)   X(27)   X(27)
GFMX 290N 850W 50  X   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
PANAMA CITY FL 34  X   1( 1)   5( 6)   3( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
COLUMBUS GA    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
GFMX 290N 870W 34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
GRAND BAHAMA   34  1   2( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
HAVANA         34 80   X(80)   X(80)   X(80)   X(80)   X(80)   X(80)
HAVANA         50 10   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PASCH                                                    
NNNN                                                                

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Page last modified: Monday, 29-Nov-2021 12:09:10 UTC