| HOME | ARCHIVES | FORECASTS | IMAGERY | ABOUT NHC | RECONNAISSANCE |

Tropical Storm ELSA (Text)


ZCZC MIAPWSAT5 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM ELSA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   6             
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052021               
0300 UTC FRI JUL 02 2021                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ELSA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
11.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 55.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.                                          
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
KINGS BAY GA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)
 
WAYCROSS GA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
MAYPORT NS FL  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)
 
JACKSONVILLE   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)
 
GAINESVILLE FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)
 
DAYTONA BEACH  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)
 
THE VILLAGES   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)
 
ORLANDO FL     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)
 
COCOA BEACH FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   7(10)
 
PATRICK AFB    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   7(10)
 
FT PIERCE FL   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   6(11)
 
W PALM BEACH   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   6(13)
 
FT LAUDERDALE  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)   5(15)
 
MIAMI FL       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   5(11)
 
HOMESTEAD ARB  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   4(12)
 
MARATHON FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  17(20)   7(27)
MARATHON FL    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)
MARATHON FL    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
KEY WEST FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  19(21)   8(29)
KEY WEST FL    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   2( 7)
 
NAPLES FL      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  11(12)  12(24)
NAPLES FL      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)
NAPLES FL      64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
FT MYERS FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   9(13)
 
VENICE FL      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)  15(22)
VENICE FL      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)
 
TAMPA FL       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  15(19)
TAMPA FL       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
CEDAR KEY FL   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  11(14)
CEDAR KEY FL   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
TALLAHASSEE FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)
 
ST MARKS FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)
 
APALACHICOLA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  10(11)
APALACHICOLA   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
GFMX 290N 850W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  12(14)
GFMX 290N 850W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
PANAMA CITY FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)
 
DESTIN EXEC AP 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
COLUMBUS GA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
GFMX 290N 870W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)
 
GRAND BAHAMA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   3( 8)
 
NEW PROVIDENCE 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   3( 7)   1( 8)
 
ANDROS         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   5(13)   X(13)
 
GREAT EXUMA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)
 
SAN SALVADOR   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
MAYAGUANA      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
GRAND TURK     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
CP SAN ANTONIO 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)
 
HAVANA         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  16(19)   4(23)
HAVANA         50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)
 
ISLE OF PINES  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  12(14)   1(15)
ISLE OF PINES  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)
 
CIENFUEGOS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)  13(19)   1(20)
CIENFUEGOS     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
CAMAGUEY       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  17(17)   3(20)   1(21)
CAMAGUEY       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
GUANTANAMO BAY 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  18(22)   X(22)   X(22)
GUANTANAMO BAY 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
GRAND CAYMAN   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   1( 6)
 
MONTEGO BAY    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  14(15)   X(15)   X(15)
MONTEGO BAY    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
KINGSTON       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  14(16)   1(17)   X(17)
KINGSTON       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
LES CAYES      34  X   X( X)   X( X)  32(32)  12(44)   1(45)   X(45)
LES CAYES      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   4( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
LES CAYES      64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
PORT-AU-PRINCE 34  X   X( X)   3( 3)  42(45)   3(48)   X(48)   X(48)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
CAPE BEATA     34  X   X( X)  19(19)  45(64)   X(64)   X(64)   X(64)
CAPE BEATA     50  X   X( X)   1( 1)  16(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)
CAPE BEATA     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
PUERTO PLATA   34  X   X( X)   4( 4)   8(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
SANTO DOMINGO  34  X   X( X)   7( 7)   4(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
PONCE PR       34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
AGUADILLA PR   34  X   1( 1)  12(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 
SAN JUAN PR    34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
VIEQUES PR     34  X   4( 4)   6(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
SAINT THOMAS   34  X   4( 4)   4( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
SAINT CROIX    34  X   7( 7)   6(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 
SAINT MAARTEN  34  X   6( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
SABA           34  X   9( 9)   1(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
ST EUSTATIUS   34  X   9( 9)   1(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
ST KITTS-NEVIS 34  X  10(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
BARBUDA        34  X   7( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
ANTIGUA        34  1   8( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
GUADELOUPE     34  2  15(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)
 
AVES           34  1  47(48)   1(49)   X(49)   X(49)   X(49)   X(49)
 
DOMINICA       34  7  34(41)   X(41)   X(41)   X(41)   X(41)   X(41)
 
MARTINIQUE     34 28  40(68)   X(68)   X(68)   X(68)   X(68)   X(68)
MARTINIQUE     50  X   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
SAINT LUCIA    34 50  45(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)
SAINT LUCIA    50  1  23(24)   X(24)   X(24)   X(24)   X(24)   X(24)
SAINT LUCIA    64  X   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
SAINT VINCENT  34 35  57(92)   X(92)   X(92)   X(92)   X(92)   X(92)
SAINT VINCENT  50  1  16(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)
SAINT VINCENT  64  X   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
BARBADOS       34 97   1(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)
BARBADOS       50 29   3(32)   X(32)   X(32)   X(32)   X(32)   X(32)
BARBADOS       64  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
GRENADA        34  2  10(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
TRINIDADTOBAGO 34  1   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PAPIN/BROWN                                              
      
NNNN                                                                

Standard version of this page

Alternate Formats
About Alternates - E-Mail Advisories - RSS Feeds

Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory - Past Advisories - About Advisories

Marine Forecasts
Latest Products - About Marine Products

Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery - US Weather Radar - Aircraft Recon - Local Data Archive - Forecast Verification - Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense

Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names Wind Scale - Prepare - Climatology - NHC Glossary - NHC Acronyms - Frequently Asked Questions - AOML Hurricane-Research Division

About Us
About NHC - Mission/Vision - Other NCEP Centers - NHC Staff - Visitor Information - NHC Library

Contact Us


NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Tuesday, 07-Dec-2021 12:09:10 UTC