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Tropical Storm ELSA (Text)


ZCZC MIAPWSAT5 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM ELSA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   3             
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052021               
0900 UTC THU JUL 01 2021                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ELSA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
9.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 48.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35
KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.                                             
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
ORLANDO FL     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
COCOA BEACH FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)
 
PATRICK AFB    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)
 
FT PIERCE FL   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)
 
W PALM BEACH   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)
 
FT LAUDERDALE  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  10(12)
 
MIAMI FL       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)
 
HOMESTEAD ARB  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)
 
MARATHON FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  17(21)
MARATHON FL    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)
MARATHON FL    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
KEY WEST FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  19(23)
KEY WEST FL    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)
KEY WEST FL    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
NAPLES FL      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  13(15)
NAPLES FL      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
NAPLES FL      64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
FT MYERS FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)
 
VENICE FL      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  11(12)
 
TAMPA FL       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)
 
CEDAR KEY FL   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)
 
APALACHICOLA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
GFMX 290N 850W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)
 
PANAMA CITY FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
GRAND BAHAMA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)
 
NEW PROVIDENCE 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)
 
ANDROS         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   4( 9)
 
GREAT EXUMA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   2( 6)
 
MAYAGUANA      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)
 
GRAND TURK     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
CP SAN ANTONIO 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)
 
HAVANA         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  16(21)
HAVANA         50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
ISLE OF PINES  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)  10(16)
ISLE OF PINES  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
ISLE OF PINES  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
CIENFUEGOS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   9(16)
CIENFUEGOS     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
CAMAGUEY       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)   3(12)
 
GUANTANAMO BAY 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   5(11)   1(12)
 
GRAND CAYMAN   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   3(10)
 
MONTEGO BAY    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  15(19)   1(20)
MONTEGO BAY    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)
 
KINGSTON       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)  12(20)   1(21)
KINGSTON       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)
KINGSTON       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
LES CAYES      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  19(19)   3(22)   X(22)
LES CAYES      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
PORT-AU-PRINCE 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  32(32)   2(34)   X(34)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
CAPE BEATA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  44(45)   X(45)   X(45)
CAPE BEATA     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)   X(11)   X(11)
CAPE BEATA     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
PUERTO PLATA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  12(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
SANTO DOMINGO  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
PONCE PR       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
AGUADILLA PR   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   7(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 
VIEQUES PR     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
SAINT THOMAS   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
SAINT CROIX    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)   1(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
SAINT MAARTEN  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
SABA           34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
ST EUSTATIUS   34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
ST KITTS-NEVIS 34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
BARBUDA        34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
ANTIGUA        34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
GUADELOUPE     34  X   X( X)   7( 7)   4(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
AVES           34  X   X( X)   5( 5)  29(34)   X(34)   X(34)   X(34)
AVES           50  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
DOMINICA       34  X   X( X)  19(19)   5(24)   X(24)   X(24)   X(24)
 
MARTINIQUE     34  X   X( X)  36(36)   3(39)   X(39)   X(39)   X(39)
MARTINIQUE     50  X   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
SAINT LUCIA    34  X   X( X)  62(62)   2(64)   X(64)   X(64)   X(64)
SAINT LUCIA    50  X   X( X)  11(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
SAINT LUCIA    64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
SAINT VINCENT  34  X   X( X)  57(57)   2(59)   X(59)   X(59)   X(59)
SAINT VINCENT  50  X   X( X)  13(13)   2(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)
SAINT VINCENT  64  X   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
BARBADOS       34  X   3( 3)  68(71)   X(71)   X(71)   X(71)   X(71)
BARBADOS       50  X   X( X)  14(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)
BARBADOS       64  X   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
GRENADA        34  X   X( X)  11(11)   2(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 
TRINIDADTOBAGO 34  X   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PASCH                                                    
NNNN                                                                

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Page last modified: Tuesday, 30-Nov-2021 12:09:10 UTC