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BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Elsa Intermediate Advisory Number 35A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052021
800 PM EDT Thu Jul 08 2021
 
...THE FLASH FLOODING THREAT FROM ELSA CONTINUES ESPECIALLY FOR THE 
MID-ATLANTIC STATES INTO NEW ENGLAND...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...36.8N 77.4W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM W OF NORFOLK VIRGINIA
ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM SW OF ATLANTIC CITY NEW JERSEY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued from Little River 
Inlet, South Carolina to Surf City, North Carolina.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Surf City, North Carolina to Sandy Hook, New Jersey
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
* Chesapeake Bay south of North Beach and the tidal Potomac south
of Cobb Island
* Delaware Bay south of Slaughter Beach
* Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to the eastern tip along the
south shore and from Port Jefferson Harbor eastward on the north
shore
* New Haven, Connecticut to Merrimack River, Massachusetts including
Cape Cod, Block Island, Martha's Vineyard, and Nantucket
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
 
For information on wind hazards north of the Tropical Storm Warning
area, please see products from your local weather office.
 
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was
located near latitude 36.8 North, longitude 77.4 West.  Elsa is
moving toward the northeast near 21 mph (33 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue with an increase in forward speed
during the next couple of days.  On the forecast track, Elsa 
will pass near the eastern mid-Atlantic states tonight, and move 
near or over the northeastern United States on Friday and Friday 
night.  The system should move over Atlantic Canada by Friday night 
and Saturday.
 
Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher 
gusts.  No significant change in strength is expected through 
Friday, and Elsa is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone by 
Friday night.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km), 
well to the southeast of the center. A WeatherFlow weather station 
on Alligator Bridge in Dare County, North Carolina, recently 
reported a sustained wind of 41 mph (67 km/h) gusting to 51 mph (81 
km/h).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches) 
based on nearby surface observations.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and
on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.
 
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue over
portions of the North Carolina coast and along the
mid-Atlantic coast later this evening.  These winds will spread 
northward in the warning area over the northeastern states by 
Friday.
 
RAINFALL: Elsa is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts
and impacts the rest of this week:
 
Across central and eastern North Carolina into southeastern
Virginia, and from the Mid-Atlantic into New England...2 to 4 inches
of rain with isolated totals up to 6 inches through Friday are
possible, which could result in limited-to-considerable flash and
urban flooding, as well as isolated minor river flooding.
 
For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with Elsa,
please visit the following link:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc5.html
 
TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible across eastern North
Carolina into southeast Virginia and eastern Maryland through this
evening.  The threat for a tornado or two will continue through
late tonight and Friday morning across coastal portions of the
Mid-Atlantic to southern New England.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Blake
 
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