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Tropical Storm Elsa Intermediate Advisory Number 14A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052021
800 PM EDT Sat Jul 03 2021
 
...ELSA SLOWS DOWN AS IT PASSES BETWEEN HAITI AND JAMAICA...
...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT EN ROUTE TO INVESTIGATE THE STORM...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.8N 74.7W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM SSW OF TIBURON HAITI
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM E OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The Government of the Dominican Republic has discontinued the 
Tropical Storm Warning and the Tropical Storm Watch for the 
Dominican Republic.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Southern portion of Haiti from Port Au Prince to the southern
border with the Dominican Republic.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of Haiti north of Port Au Prince
* The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Granma, Guantanamo, Holguin,
Las Tunas, Santiago de Cuba, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa
Clara, and Cienfuegos
* Jamaica
 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Granma, Guantanamo, Holguin,
Las Tunas, and Santiago de Cuba
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Cayman Brac and Little Cayman
* The Cuban provinces of Matanzas, Mayabeque, and Havana
* The Florida Keys from Craig Key westward to the Dry Tortugas
 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
 
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.
 
Interests elsewhere in the Cuba, the Cayman Islands, the Florida
peninsula, and the Florida Keys should monitor the progress of Elsa.
Additional watches and warnings will likely be required tonight or
on Sunday.
 
For storm information specific to your area in the United States, 
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor 
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast 
office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the 
United States, please monitor products issued by your national 
meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was
located near latitude 17.8 North, longitude 74.7 West. Elsa is
moving toward the west-northwest near 23 mph (37 km/h).  An 
additional decrease in forward speed is expected tonight and on 
Sunday, followed by a turn toward the northwest Sunday night or 
Monday. On the forecast track, Elsa will move near the southwestern 
peninsula of Haiti over the next few hours, and then move near 
Jamaica and portions of eastern Cuba on Sunday.  By Monday, Elsa is 
expected to move across central and western Cuba and head toward the 
Florida Straits. Elsa is then forecast to move move near or over 
portions of the west coast of Florida on Tuesday.
 
Maximum sustained winds remain near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Little change in strength is forecast through Sunday, but
gradual weakening is forecast on Sunday night and Monday when Elsa
is expected to be near or over Cuba.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
mainly to the north of the center. A wind gust to 46 mph (74 km/h) 
was recently reported in Port-au-Prince, Haiti.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and
on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.
 
WIND: Hurricane conditions are still possible in the hurricane
warning area in Haiti for a few more hours. Hurricane conditions
are possible in eastern Cuba on Sunday. Tropical Storm conditions
are possible for a few more hours over portions of the Dominican
Republic, and are expected on Jamaica and over eastern and central
Cuba on Sunday.  Tropical storm conditions are possible in the
watch area in the Cayman Islands Sunday and Sunday night and in
western Cuba and the Florida Keys Sunday night and Monday.
 
STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels above normal tide
levels by as much as the following amounts in areas of onshore flow
within the hurricane watch and warning areas...
 
Southern coast of Cuba...3 to 5 feet
Southern coast of Hispaniola...2 to 4 feet
 
The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally
dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving
inland from the shoreline.  The water could reach the following
heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...
 
Craig Key, FL to Dry Tortugas...1-2 ft
 
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.  For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.
 
RAINFALL: Across portions of southern Hispaniola and Jamaica,
rainfall of 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches
is expected today into Sunday. This rain may lead to scattered flash
flooding and mudslides, some of which may be significant in nature.
 
Across portions of Cuba Sunday into Monday, rainfall of 5 to 10
inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches is expected. This
will result in significant flash flooding and mudslides.
 
Across the Cayman Islands Sunday into Monday, rainfall of 3 to 6
inches is expected. This rain may lead to scattered flash flooding.
 
Rainfall from Elsa is likely to impact portions of the Florida Keys
and Florida Peninsula early next week. Amounts of 2 to 4 inches with
localized maximum amounts up to 6 inches will be possible, which may
result in isolated flash, urban, and minor river flooding.
 
SURF: Swells generated by Elsa will spread westward across the
Caribbean Sea through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Stewart/Papin
 
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