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Hurricane Elsa Intermediate Advisory Number 10A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052021
800 PM AST Fri Jul 02 2021
 
...ELSA MOVING QUICKLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN 
CARIBBEAN SEA AS A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE...
...AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING ELSA...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.4N 65.1W
ABOUT 475 MI...765 KM ESE OF ISLA BEATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 810 MI...1305 KM ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 30 MPH...48 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The Meteorological Service of St. Lucia has discontinued the
Tropical Storm Warning for St. Lucia.

The Government of France has discontinued the Tropical Storm 
Warning for Martinique.

The Meteorological Service of Trinidad and Tobago has discontinued 
the Tropical Storm Watch for Grenada And Its Dependencies.


SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Southern coast of Dominican Republic from Punta Palenque to the
border with Haiti
* Southern portion of Haiti from Port Au Prince to the southern
border with the Dominican Republic
* Jamaica
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of Haiti north of Port Au Prince
* South coast of the Dominican Republic east of Punta Palenque to
Cabo Engano
 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Granma, Guantanamo, Holguin,
Las Tunas, and Santiago de Cuba
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Saba and Sint Eustatius
* North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to
Bahia de Manzanillo
* Cayman Brac and Little Cayman
 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
 
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.
 
Interests elsewhere in the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the 
Dominican Republic, Cuba, and the Cayman Islands should monitor the 
progress of Elsa. Additional watches and warnings will likely be 
required tonight.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Elsa was located
near latitude 14.4 North, longitude 65.1 West. Elsa is moving toward
the west-northwest near 30 mph (48 km/h), and this general motion 
is expected to continue through Saturday. A decrease in forward 
speed is expected Saturday night and Sunday, followed by a turn 
toward the northwest Sunday night or Monday. On the forecast track, 
Elsa will move across the eastern Caribbean Sea tonight across the 
central Caribbean Sea on Saturday, and move near the southern coast 
of Hispaniola late Saturday or Saturday night.  By Sunday, Elsa is 
forecast to move near Jamaica and portions of eastern Cuba, and move 
near portions of central and western Cuba Sunday night and Monday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Little change in strength is forecast through Saturday. Slow
weakening is expected to begin Saturday night or Sunday as Elsa
interacts with Hispaniola, Jamaica, and Cuba.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140
miles (220 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.38 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and
on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.
 
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm
watch area in the northern Leeward Islands for the next few hours.
 
Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area in
Haiti and the Dominican Republic by late Saturday.  Hurricane
conditions are expected on Jamaica late Saturday or Sunday, and are
possible in eastern Cuba on Sunday.
 
STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels above normal tide
levels by as much as the following amounts in areas of onshore flow
within the hurricane watch and warning areas...
 
Southern coast of Cuba...4 to 6 feet
Southern coast of Hispaniola...2 to 4 feet
Jamaica...1 to 3 feet
 
RAINFALL:  Elsa is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8
inches with maximum amounts of 15 inches across the Windward and 
southern Leeward Islands, including Barbados, this evening. This 
rain may lead to isolated flash flooding and mudslides. Rainfall 
with decrease across this area by early Saturday morning.
 
Over Puerto Rico, rainfall of 1 to 3 inches with localized amounts
of 5 inches is expected tonight into Saturday. This rain may lead
to isolated flash flooding and minor river flooding, along with the
potential for mudslides.
 
Across portions of southern Hispaniola and Jamaica, rainfall of 
4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches is 
possible Saturday into Sunday.  This rain may lead to scattered 
flash flooding and mudslides.
 
By early next week, Elsa is expected to impact portions of the
Cayman Islands and Cuba producing 5 to 10 inches of rain, with
isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches. This rainfall may result 
in significant flash flooding and mudslides.
 
SURF: Swells generated by Elsa will spread westward across the
Caribbean Sea through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.
 
$$
Forecaster Stewart/Papin
 
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