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TROPICAL STORM ELSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052021
2100 UTC SAT JUL 03 2021
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM
CRAIG KEY WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS.
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...VILLA CLARA...AND
CIENFUEGOS...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE PROVINCES OF
MAYABEQUE AND HAVANA.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN PORTION OF HAITI FROM PORT AU PRINCE TO THE SOUTHERN
BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HAITI NORTH OF PORT AU PRINCE
* SOUTHERN COAST OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM PUNTA PALENQUE TO THE
BORDER WITH HAITI
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
CAMAGUEY...GRANMA...GUANTANAMO...HOLGUIN...LAS TUNAS...SANTIAGO DE
CUBA...CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...VILLA
CLARA...AND CIENFUEGOS
* JAMAICA
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
CAMAGUEY...GRANMA...GUANTANAMO...HOLGUIN...LAS TUNAS...AND SANTIAGO
DE CUBA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC EAST OF PUNTA PALENQUE TO
CABO ENGANO
* CAYMAN BRAC AND LITTLE CAYMAN
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF MATANZAS...MAYABEQUE...AND HAVANA
* THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM CRAIG KEY WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CUBA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA...AND THE FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
ELSA.
ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED TONIGHT OR
ON SUNDAY.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N  73.9W AT 03/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT  24 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.
50 KT....... 60NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.
34 KT.......110NE 100SE  30SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE  90SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N  73.9W AT 03/2100Z
AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N  72.8W
 
FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 18.7N  75.9W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE  30SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 20.2N  78.3W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  30SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 21.6N  80.1W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  30SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 23.1N  81.6W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...100NE  70SE  30SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 24.9N  82.6W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  30SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 26.9N  83.1W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  30SW  80NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 32.0N  82.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 36.5N  77.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.5N  73.9W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 04/0000Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
 
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