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TROPICAL STORM ELSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  13...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052021
1500 UTC SAT JUL 03 2021

CORRECTED CUBAN PROVINCE TO CIENFUEGOS IN SUMMARY SECTION
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE 
PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...GRANMA...GUANTANAMO...HOLGUIN...LAS 
TUNAS...AND SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE 
PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...VILLA 
CLARA...CIENFUEGOS...AND MATANZAS.
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR
JAMAICA TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN COAST OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM PUNTA PALENQUE TO THE
BORDER WITH HAITI
* SOUTHERN PORTION OF HAITI FROM PORT AU PRINCE TO THE SOUTHERN
BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HAITI NORTH OF PORT AU PRINCE
* SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC EAST OF PUNTA PALENQUE TO
CABO ENGANO
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...GRANMA...GUANTANAMO...HOLGUIN...
LAS TUNAS...AND SANTIAGO DE CUBA
* JAMAICA
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...GRANMA...GUANTANAMO...HOLGUIN...
LAS TUNAS...AND SANTIAGO DE CUBA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO
BAHIA DE MANZANILLO
* CAYMAN BRAC AND LITTLE CAYMAN
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...VILLA
CLARA...CIENFUEGOS...AND MATANZAS
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...CUBA...THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS...THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND THE FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ELSA.  ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS
WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N  71.6W AT 03/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT  25 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT.......110NE 100SE  30SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 150SE  60SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N  71.6W AT 03/1500Z
AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N  70.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 18.1N  74.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE  30SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 19.6N  76.7W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  30SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 21.2N  78.9W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  30SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 22.7N  80.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...100NE  70SE  30SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 24.0N  81.8W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  30SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 25.9N  82.5W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  30SW  80NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 30.0N  82.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 35.0N  78.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N  71.6W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 03/1800Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
 
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