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Hurricane ELSA (Text)


ZCZC MIATCMAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
HURRICANE ELSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052021
0900 UTC SAT JUL 03 2021
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN COAST OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM PUNTA PALENQUE TO THE
BORDER WITH HAITI
* SOUTHERN PORTION OF HAITI FROM PORT AU PRINCE TO THE SOUTHERN
BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
* JAMAICA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HAITI NORTH OF PORT AU PRINCE
* SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC EAST OF PUNTA PALENQUE TO
CABO ENGANO
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
CAMAGUEY...GRANMA...GUANTANAMO...HOLGUIN...LAS TUNAS...AND SANTIAGO
DE CUBA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO
BAHIA DE MANZANILLO
* CAYMAN BRAC AND LITTLE CAYMAN
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...CUBA...THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS...THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND THE FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ELSA.  ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS
WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N  69.0W AT 03/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT  27 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 60NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.
34 KT.......110NE 100SE  30SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 150SE  60SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N  69.0W AT 03/0900Z
AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N  67.9W
 
FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 17.5N  72.3W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE  30SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 19.0N  75.4W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  30SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 20.5N  77.8W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  30SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 22.1N  79.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT...110NE  70SE  30SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 23.4N  81.2W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  30SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 24.7N  82.2W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  30SW  80NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 28.2N  83.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 33.7N  80.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.2N  69.0W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 03/1200Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
 
 
NNNN

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Page last modified: Tuesday, 30-Nov-2021 12:09:07 UTC